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80% collapse for unicorn eVTOL manufacturer Archer Aviation?

アップデート済

4 日前

Following the successful “short” of eVTOL manufacturer Lilium (idea below), we’re going to target another. This time, Archer Aviation.

The principles behind this idea are the same as was with Lilium, mixture of fundamentals and technical analysis.

For some years I’ve been watching with interest the electrification attempts of the helicopter. Referred to as eVTOL (electric vertical takeoff and landing), various companies around the world are competing for market dominance with their winning design.

There’s a realisation coming to many electric cars owners that will inevitably spill over to eVTOL.

1) Range anxiety.
2) Hazardous battery fires are hard to extinguish.

3) The mass-based energy density of batteries is in the range of 0.1 to 0.27 kWh/kg. In comparison, gasoline is 13 kWh/kg.

For me, no. 3 is the killer of electric transportation via battery, whether it be on road or flight you carry weight than never depletes during use.

4) Proven certified technology.
I’m a safety aerospace engineer by trade. When moving people around even for short flight, safety is above all. There can be nothing more important. eVTOL is complex technology, especially when compared to a regular helicopters. I’m not saying they are not safe, but proving they are remains a long way off.

Almost all eVTOLs require an airfield to operate. Helicopters do not. Have been invited to a number of demonstrations over the years, the one thing that continues to strike me is how far certification for safe flight actually is. Easily 10+ years. These business are advertising a very different picture, which is disingenuous in my opinion.

The chart -
On the above 12 day chart price action has been printing lower highs for the last year. Since then there is broken market structure with uptrend channel support failure.

The bear flag continuation pattern projects a 80% correction. On confirmation, such flag patterns meet the target 77% of the time. That’s a huge statistic to ignore.

On RSI, a breakout of support is also visible.

Is it possible price action grows? Sure.
Is it probable? No.

Ww

Go short from anything near $4

Lilium short