I tried putting Elliot wave label on Asian paint daily,weekly and monthly chart and couldn't come to any logical conclusion,as the uptrend didnt followed any fib rule's neither did any major swing have an internal structure similar to elliot pattern cumulatively which could make an elliot pattern.
Never the less i have shown channel on the monthly chart which seems to be acting as good support and rasistance and as an investor who likes safety and decent return and who does research on it's own look's for good entry point where he can invest his money.
This can be achieved by plotting simple channel's across the chart connecting bottom's with bottoms and top;s with tops.Add to it i have tried plotting time cycle with 58 month period and it has also captured low's on most of the occassion.
Price moving near upper channel and lossing momentum has resulted in minor corrections and an investor should wait for prices to come near channel support levels for entering into a stock.Here i have shown several top's where prices were nearing upper channel line and has given bearish reversal candle stick pattern near upper channel line signifying weakness in near future.
observe when in the candle next to reversal candle low's of reversal candle is breached a meaning full correction has given good opportunity to investor enter into a stock,also top's are formed during the first 60-70% time of the cycle(not every time but in general) and we are already in that time zone of current cycle.
To sum up,price have reversed from upper channel line and has formed grave stone doji top reversal pattern in last month and in this month we are seeing follow through selling when we breached previous month's candle's low along with time cycle approaching top forming time zone hence long positions should have a definate stop-loss depending upon one's risk apetite as we are seeing top formation characteristics on monthly charts.
Fresh long's is not advisable at this point of time,on the downside level of 2250 remains crucial support.If in coming 4 months we get close below 2250 then we can assume that we have formed a significant top at 3500 level which would not be breached easily and would take significant time to overcome.
Disclaimer:I am posting this analysis just for my future reference purpose,positions should not be build or exited on the basis of this analysis.
コメント
⋅
On hourly chart Asian paint seems to be following 83 hours cycle,low posted near this cycle perio acts as support for next cycle and we have seen rally in the next cycle.Recently this cycle period low was due on 01-12-2021.we saw stock going up marginally after which it failed to sustain those gain stock breached that cycle period low 3125. Currently stock is trading in a down slopping channel and reversed exactly near the upper channel line and breached cycle low of last cycle.On daily chart stock has managed to close below previous days low indicating short term reversal and hence one can short this stock on monday if price comes at 3134(9 hour ema) with a hourly closing stop-loss of 3200 on the upside and a target of 2920.
Disclaimer:Position should not be solely build or exited on the basis of this analysis.Posting this just for my future reference.
Very well analysis done dear @under. please explain how the time frame setting is done
UNDERDOG-29
⋅
@anandkadam2828, on the up where u are seeing stock name beside that there is one icon where you can click and select time frame of chart
anandkadam2828
⋅
I mean to say time frame setting settings for time cycle
UNDERDOG-29
⋅
@anandkadam2828, that you have to do by trial and error method
hospitalityforu
⋅
thanks for a detailed indepth analysis..many a times all yout gut feeling & analysis fails or works..as the sentiments of the markets are qt unpredicatable may,a times..thanks Sir
UNDERDOG-29
⋅
@hospitalityforu, this post shows chart of asian paint since it's inception as it is a monthly chart,i have attempted to show area of supply and demand by plotting channel on the price and where an investor will get better risk-reward for entering into a stock .Since it has reversed on manier occasion from upper channel line and has stayed sideways or given correction after hitiing upper channel line. it's wise to stay away from the stock until we get a price near lower channel line from long term investor point of.This post was not targeting any short term moves.
vikassehgal66
⋅
Sir i have 108 @ 3123 what to do next sir please advise
anandkadam2828
⋅
@vikassehgal66 It's a potential stock do not get panicked stay in the stock or buy back at lower levels or average at lower levels. Prices of crude oil are inching higher the main raw material for paint is crude oil. Better to exit in a loss and wait for the right time to re-enter
UNDERDOG-29
⋅
@vikassehgal66, unless i know your time frame it's difficult to tell how it would behave,here i am guessing you are a short term trader that's you are worried and hence i would suggest that for an short term trader it's imparitive to have defined risk so that his large chunk of funds doesnt get stuck in a single stock for a longer time there by missing other opportunities.On an daily chart it has broken upward slopping trendline drawn by connecting covid low's with successive lows.Concerning thing is not only did it breached upward sloping trenline but it also breached it's pivot swing low of 2949 and closed below it.Hence my gut feeling is current bounce will be short lived and will be sold into.Hence on the down side i would suggest SL of 3045 on closing basis and upside 3167 and 3240 can act as rasistance.
please explain how the time frame setting is done