Why a Crucial Bitcoin Bear market could be in hands
hi guys. BTC is showing bearishness at the point, little bounce towards 9800 to retest many moving averages. problem is the bearishness of alt coins, which indicate further panic sell.
now, the market is in the verge of bear market or not. this week, next week will probably give signal.
as you see btc formed h&s on daily, and it is giving a little bounce off 9300 zone. now it tested 4hr 21ema, and might be poised to test daily conversion line at 10000, which also collides with daily 100ma, weekly 12ema.
btc might test 9800~10100 zone, and slide real hard to 9k or below zone this week, or next. only if it breaks 9000, closes below that daily, h&s is in hands. before that, h&s is just a formation to keep look after.
as mentioned, btc printed a macd bear signal, a dead cross on weekly, and rsi might be in line to test 53 zone, which, is probably the last hope for the bulls. if we dip below 53, true bear market starts.
now the market is giving hope that 21ema(9000~9100) holds. because, in last bull runs, it tested that zone and started
for the next bull run.
however, there are some assumptions that that could be a short lived hope because, we see weekly macd dead cross, from a very high level, which was not printed in 2016 runs. furthermore, major altcoins are very bearish,
which indicate more drops.
coins like litecoin, weekly ris dropped to bear market zone, which indicate oversell on weekly base in the future, that could take the price down to 20~30dollar levels. eth, as you see in the chart below, keeps printing macd bearishness, price broke uptrend line.
coins like eos too, broke down under weekly ichimoku, just so bearish, could test the all time low.
however, i do think that a small bull run, could occur, in september, or october, from the bottom levels, since
daily rsi will print bull divergences at lows. that low will be short lived, because that low is kind of giving a proof that bear market is in(at the same time bounce time) for quite long term.
so the fact, that btc will find bottom at 9000 could be true, but not true for alt coins. because alt coins can fall, nevertheless btc, price, it gets affected by dominance, zigzag triangle movement of btc, low volume.
so, this market is interesting because, alt coin price is so low compared to btc price, which, the market is not
as healthy, and it is quite one sided. so as long as btc drops or consolidates, btc dominance can grow higher because of expectations of bull run, and alt coins can just drop.
btc dominance is at 72, even though price dropped. its channel resistance is at 76~77, once it touches that zone,
dominance can heavily start correction toward 65 zone, which, will be the start of bear market.
so btc price could lose 21ema support, but, even though it holds 21ema, alt coin bear market still is in hands for months. because, btc weekly macd printed dead cross, which indicates more drop, or at least boring consolidation, that leads more bearishness.
we all expect a bull run before btc halving, but whales proved that price surge can occur in only 2~3month period. that means, whales can do whatever they want before that event. especially, when coins like litecoin
is dipping so low, after the halving, this market can go wrong in a year or two. because, litecoin tended to be
the future chart of btc. but it is showing extreme bearishness at the moment.
global politic wise, us government regulators and politicians do not support crypto market, which will press the
btc price down. what we saw in this market is the fact that, whenever global regulators and power give implementations to regulate the market, the market goes bearish, because whales need to keep the price below
the psychological level that gives impression of being greedy.
also, monthly wise, we see 2 consecutive red bearish tweezers, which is very bad. in a normal bull market,
we should not see these candles. normally, these bearish tweezers indicate trend reversal.
so, current moment we need to keep balance in this market. this week, keep eye on btc price which can come back to 9300/9000 zone. also keep eye on eth, xrp, it could drop 10% from current price. a long signal can be in hands, this week, or next week. if btc deeps below 9k, panic sells, whatever the price, we can buy, because weekly base, it would close above 21ema(9100 zone). but after that, we need another analysis.
happy trading~!
now, the market is in the verge of bear market or not. this week, next week will probably give signal.
as you see btc formed h&s on daily, and it is giving a little bounce off 9300 zone. now it tested 4hr 21ema, and might be poised to test daily conversion line at 10000, which also collides with daily 100ma, weekly 12ema.
btc might test 9800~10100 zone, and slide real hard to 9k or below zone this week, or next. only if it breaks 9000, closes below that daily, h&s is in hands. before that, h&s is just a formation to keep look after.
as mentioned, btc printed a macd bear signal, a dead cross on weekly, and rsi might be in line to test 53 zone, which, is probably the last hope for the bulls. if we dip below 53, true bear market starts.
now the market is giving hope that 21ema(9000~9100) holds. because, in last bull runs, it tested that zone and started
for the next bull run.
however, there are some assumptions that that could be a short lived hope because, we see weekly macd dead cross, from a very high level, which was not printed in 2016 runs. furthermore, major altcoins are very bearish,
which indicate more drops.
coins like litecoin, weekly ris dropped to bear market zone, which indicate oversell on weekly base in the future, that could take the price down to 20~30dollar levels. eth, as you see in the chart below, keeps printing macd bearishness, price broke uptrend line.
coins like eos too, broke down under weekly ichimoku, just so bearish, could test the all time low.
however, i do think that a small bull run, could occur, in september, or october, from the bottom levels, since
daily rsi will print bull divergences at lows. that low will be short lived, because that low is kind of giving a proof that bear market is in(at the same time bounce time) for quite long term.
so the fact, that btc will find bottom at 9000 could be true, but not true for alt coins. because alt coins can fall, nevertheless btc, price, it gets affected by dominance, zigzag triangle movement of btc, low volume.
so, this market is interesting because, alt coin price is so low compared to btc price, which, the market is not
as healthy, and it is quite one sided. so as long as btc drops or consolidates, btc dominance can grow higher because of expectations of bull run, and alt coins can just drop.
btc dominance is at 72, even though price dropped. its channel resistance is at 76~77, once it touches that zone,
dominance can heavily start correction toward 65 zone, which, will be the start of bear market.
so btc price could lose 21ema support, but, even though it holds 21ema, alt coin bear market still is in hands for months. because, btc weekly macd printed dead cross, which indicates more drop, or at least boring consolidation, that leads more bearishness.
we all expect a bull run before btc halving, but whales proved that price surge can occur in only 2~3month period. that means, whales can do whatever they want before that event. especially, when coins like litecoin
is dipping so low, after the halving, this market can go wrong in a year or two. because, litecoin tended to be
the future chart of btc. but it is showing extreme bearishness at the moment.
global politic wise, us government regulators and politicians do not support crypto market, which will press the
btc price down. what we saw in this market is the fact that, whenever global regulators and power give implementations to regulate the market, the market goes bearish, because whales need to keep the price below
the psychological level that gives impression of being greedy.
also, monthly wise, we see 2 consecutive red bearish tweezers, which is very bad. in a normal bull market,
we should not see these candles. normally, these bearish tweezers indicate trend reversal.
so, current moment we need to keep balance in this market. this week, keep eye on btc price which can come back to 9300/9000 zone. also keep eye on eth, xrp, it could drop 10% from current price. a long signal can be in hands, this week, or next week. if btc deeps below 9k, panic sells, whatever the price, we can buy, because weekly base, it would close above 21ema(9100 zone). but after that, we need another analysis.
happy trading~!
トレード稼働中:
short entry:9800/9900/10k/10.2k area.
buy in proper order. these areas collide with daily 100ma, weekly 12ema, and many resistance. stoploss only if price close daily above 10300~400.
target 9450/9350/9000+@
buy in proper order. these areas collide with daily 100ma, weekly 12ema, and many resistance. stoploss only if price close daily above 10300~400.
target 9450/9350/9000+@
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