A quick chart illustrating that even in the bearmarket of 2014/15, the MA200 weekly support was holding. It therefore seems, that this support acts as ultra strong lonterm support, so imagining how this support will develop, could give hints about the future price development of BTC.
If BTC is to repeat a bearmarket 2014/15 style, it is very likely that price will touch the MA200 support again. This will lead to a drop into the 3k price area. Plusminus of course, could be as low as 2500, or only 3500. But the ultra strong support area is somewhere in that range.
After mid 2019, I see prices rising again at the latest, and picking up speed through 2020, which will lead to the next rally, with a top in the 100-200k area.
A lot depends on future ETF decisions now, so we just have to wait and see. But even without any ETF approval, chances for the rally in 2020-2022 are very high due to the halving.
Nice, but the whales will decide. 200 weekly MA is same as 1400 daily MA I believe.
SebastianofMoon
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@barclayjames, Thanks for the insight. Yes, it will be whales who will decide the general direction for the next months.
bkv1182
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interesting analysis, thanks I enjoy reading your input. I wonder if at some point crypto being a "new" market will have an impact on traditional TA, like at a certain point with we run out of new people willing to invest in crypto? Or will the opposite happen and institutions coming in provides a sharp change in the trajectory?
SebastianofMoon
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@bkv1182, Thanks :) I think the latter will be the case. The futures trading which is already here and the possible ETF in the future will lead to BTC following more and more the rules of traditional assets. The volatility will also decrease, since the volume will rise even more. I see that as the most probable scenario.