I was long thinking on why this recent rally has happened and searching for clues in the past of similar events.
Then I discovered something very interesting. Every time BTC broke the previous linear trend in the logarithmic chart, it retested it, not long afterward.
It happened after the 2011 bearmarket, it happened in the 2014/15 bearmarket, and even if it took longer to unfold this time, it seems to be happening now.
And as for: BTC must correct because the weekly stoch RSI is on overbought now for over 1 month, take a look at historical weekly stoch RSI's. If BTC does a rally, it can stay on overbought for up to 4 months, the record of the April 2013 bubble.
But it also stayed on overbought for 2 1/2 and 3 months on other occasions.
We are now at almost 2 months, so it can still stay there for 2 weeks, in the extreme case even 4 weeks. Overbought for 4 months is unlikely though imho.
So this means we could see 2-4 green weeklys. A retest of the previous linear trend would lead us to the price point that I mentioned: 7500.
Afterwards we would see a stronger correction and retest of the long squareroot trendline, before the rally will pick up steam in 2020, and go to new ATHs in 2021.
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So now let's see if we get past the strong resistances. The first is the rising channel from my other chart here:
The other being the very strong one at 6500 (mirror resistance and very strong volume profile resistance)
We might take a dip at 6500, before we continue onwards towards 7500 or even more.
@keifer, Thanks :) Let's see if this theory holds up, because it still remains a theory. The main problem with BTC is, that we don't have too many data points because this asset is still so young.
keifer
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@FlaviusTodorius67, After reading your chart I decided to look at the charts as you see them. Interesting observation with trend lines (not straight but on a log scale has a curvature etc.) I don't use Stoch so much any more but a plain RSI. So on the RSI we are not over bought on the weekly and it is very real that we will go higher as you say. Especially on a monthly...cup and handle.
SebastianofMoon
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@keifer, Excellent observations. Yes, weekly RSI is looking good, and monthly also. There is definitely upside potential from this point of view.
keifer
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@FlaviusTodorius67, I did a little more bits on the monthly and posted it as a snap shot on my recent BTC/USDT chart as an update. I was sure it was going down via Elliot Waves but since looking at the charts you have, I now have doubts and wanted others to decide for themselves between the 2 ideas.
SebastianofMoon
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@keifer, Nice! Well the target for the cup and handle looks good. End of 2020 reaching the old ATH. Then rejection and a full more year to reach the new ATH at probably around 100-150k. So indeed, the monthly picture looks very good.
I was until recently also sure we'd go down to 1800 USD due to comparing with the 2014/15 fractal, but this turns out to be more and more untrue. Thanks for sharing!
keifer
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@FlaviusTodorius67, Certainly appears that way.
keifer
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@FlaviusTodorius67, I sent this to you in a PM but after reading this comment of yours, I believe your open minded enough to see this https://here.https://www.tradingview.com/x/smUd6iW5/
SebastianofMoon
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@keifer, I also see 100k as the lower ATH target. 360k seems very high, but then again, 20k also seemed very high in 2015, didn't it XD
So 100-360k, anywhere in that region will be the ATH with a very high likelihood.