this POST might upset people Use your logic and leave out the emotions...
Been trading and doing TA for FOUR YEARS I have 15k followers on Reddit who hang on my every word On Tview, it's a different story
Every TA author on here thinks THEIR system is the best But as a day trader, for me there is no method 'loyalty' except to whatever gives me 70% plus accuracy on my trades
Charts and patterns talk the loudest. And I have seen that over the years, patterns, correlations change and great methods no longer work like they once did
So I found that combinations of systems/methods tends to get better results
People can be stubborn, even with the truth in their face... even though their forecasts are wrong 50% of the time (flipping a coin is the same) and when they get it wrong, half lie about it
The here is the truth about Bitcoin today ... Just before the Ukraine invasion the NASDAQ and SP 500 fairly much started to determine Bitcoin price
this is because as BTC got more mainstream... the retail players increased (they do not understand crypto) and as a result, they play it the only way they know... ... like a tech stock
Proof? Grayscale and Terra are buying mass quantities while Musk picked Twitter as his new toy... but price now thrashes like a flag in the wind.. by stock market players, as if the other influencers do not exist
so this TA today... is heavily influenced by this local theory and until BTC breaks from all this BS, it's true reality... at least for me.
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I watch Bloomberg TV while trading. (it is totally free if you have Firestick) This is how I see in real time when NASDAQ and SP500 are making strong moves.
At this time, 6:15pm EST, FUTURES have reversed from terrible to near break even. On the flip side, futures rarely get it 'right' for the first 60 minutes of the stock market open. (Monday in this discussion)
I am sticking my neck out to forecast that a big move is coming. I still have no opinion on direction. If I did, I would tell you, as that I buy and sell coins daily and have just as much frustration when I do not know market direction.
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I have idea on GENERAL BTC direction and some ALT coins.
if we fall below 38k, I believe that is a local BOTTOM. I believe we will then run up to at least 45k, maybe 48k and highest 52k (there are some open CME gaps there)
Then I believe we will crash to 25k BTC. If you research stock market forecasts, the same thing is being forecast by some of the most trusted pros.
During our near-term rise, my hot coin picks are as follows. High chance that AVAX, ALGO, SUSHI, EOS, ENJ, AUDIO make fantastic gains. Also, BTC dominance is near its super low, which can spark off ALT coin season.
Other ALTS could do well, I just named a few for which I have strong faith.
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More ALTS that I think will rock and roll, if BTC runs upward
CRV, KEEP, LINK, AAVE, KAVA
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So my first target was hit. If the stock market recovers, then so should BTC. Otherwise next major support is closer to 38k.
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This is my LAST update to this thread I will start a new one if I have something of value to show everyone
This post shows the post analysis after my forecast met its target My goal was to show for now, the stock market is messing up TA short term
@Germio, this post thread is done. It also got 350 views... yet, here you are. Instead of putting down the hard work done for free by skilled members, how about contributing to the community?
Gringo1nlx
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Btc trades correlated to nasdaq not because of retailers.. but because of bots who are set to trade with a tech leader in times of uncertainty.. they always trade with tech leader, its jsut that rest of the money left the market and whats most obvious right now...moves that happen in btc are mere reflection of nasdaq.
If it chooses downside, whats your optimal target for down and how far do you think it can go?
TradeClass
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@Gringo1nlx, I do not agree with the bots theory. In the old days, they ruled and you could see their footprint by the marks they leave on charts. Stop losses are the new triggers that manipulators target. Stock traders tend to overuse this tool. As for downside, 37k is my theoretical bottom before a crazy run to 52k (then crash burn to 25k) Visit Yuriey Bishko and read his posts about previous volumes and liquidity areas.
NeonLight
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What is the most probably outcome, though? Your chart merely shows what any lay person could ponder: up, down, sideways.
TradeClass
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@NeonLight, Clearly you do not understand anything I wrote. I shared two opposing targets based on what the stock market decides. This means, any trader with half a brain, knows that when they see prices start to move in any ONE direction, they can select HELPFUL support and resistance prices, for which I generously supplied. However, insulting me will NOT coerce me into making a fake forecast.. because NO ONE knows what the stock market will do in the morning. It has been total insanity this past week on price moves for all coins. So, in summary, if you want a forecast that nails price exactly, pick an author who tells you whatever fantasy you want to hear... and just hope you win the bet. At this time, Sunday 6 pm, the odds of movement direction are 50/50, regardless of whether you like that or not.
NeonLight
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@TradeClass, Thank you for your insights. I meant no insult. Good luck out there.