I have been highlighting this for some time that Bitcoin is in EW terms in a Flat Correction which is referred to as 3-3-5.
In my chart I suggested that with a possible up side to 1250 for double top but was also accepting 1100 zone as possible top which is 88.6% retracement of the move from 450 low - check the chart tradingview.com/v/5EV5iGiL/
I subsequently explained in the live sessions the potential implication of the forthcoming decline which I gather is not welcomed by many traders but might be hard lesson to learn.
The recordings are available on you tune if you wish to check them out for more details.
Whilst it not possible to plot out exact path of the price to possible 450-300 area, in this chart I am suggesting potential course of the price with free hand sketch to suggest overall directions and not necessarily exact levels. Also some time symmetry suggest continued decline to back end of January at least.
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AlexandreFF
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Excellent as always great work !
DanV
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From the time I published this chart it appeared that I top was in and that all was set for strong decline. That did not play out. So I posted an update showing more complex pattern that still has another leg up to retest 1100 zone or letter higher before the strong leg don anticipated will unfold. Well That complex pattern still in progress. So here is the chart showing the upward correction is now approaching a point for final leg up to 1100 zone in the interim. Once complete still expecting that strong move to 450 zone is on card for now.
Papa5
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Hi Dan, the market starting to drop,
are we in wave c already?
Thanks!
DanV
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I think this is rather complex leg up and is not complete from what I see. So further upside is still expected before the wave c to the downside commence.
TheChasm
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Give it a few days before ruling out this drop
MA100
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Hi Dan,
I really appreciate your detailed charts and updates! Thank you very much for your work and enthusiasm. You do a great job.
Can you please post a short update about your latest chart BTC/USD? What's your opinion on the recent pattern?
Do you still expect an upside move to 1100 - 1200 zone (continuation pattern)?
Or are we going to see a breakout down (descending triangle Mt Gox - Bitstamp or symmetrical triangle on Huobi China)?
Thank you very much!
Rgds, Herbert
DanV
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Hi Thanks for your appreciation. I am posting an update to this in a sec.
DanV
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UPDATE:- After forming a top around 1090 and drop, at the time it appeared as though the Wave B of "A" & "B" Flat was likely complete, and as such we were expecting clear 5 wave decline to complete Wave "C" of this 3-3-5 Correction with downside target of at least 450.
However, the downside momentum seems to be running out in that case we could move up to 1100-1200 zone and could still be in Wave "B" which is not yet finished..
In this case, I see a possible Pattern that might resemble Like Mother & Baby or and Echo wave of the larger earlier wave, before the expected 5 wave decline would occur on completion.
This might then also meet the 90% retracement rule of wave "A" required for typical flat.
The main 3-3-5 Correction of the 1250 high still remains as most likely outcome of this with wave "C" downside target of 450.
Links to Youtube videos explaining the concept of 3-3-5 are
Hi Dan, value your analysis for forex and other instruments(and bitcoin is not one of them), Could you pls come back to your normal instruments. Seems like you are only focusing on bitcoin now a days! Thank You.
DanV
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HI thanks for your comments. I do Forex as you know. Have posted some charts may be you missed them. If you wish connect with me at tradingcharts4wealth@gmail.com. Thanks.