If we cannot close a daily candle above the 200 EMA or the equally reactive 200 SMA, we will have a dramatic crash back to the long term trend line from July and September.
These are critical levels of support now acting as resistance as you can see from the perfect wick off the 200 EMA. As I have indicated in my previous analysis, the last time we double breached the 200 SMA was in spring 2014. A confirmation of the 200 moving averages as resistance would be massively bearish. If we can close a candle above, I would be open to a bullish outlook, however we would need to see significant volume on a breakout above to become truly bullish in this massively bearish current market.
best greetings, Sascha