Bitcoin déjà vu anyone? Market turned to real crap again :( botje11によるCOINBASE:BTCUSDの分析

Bitcoin bulls have fled the scene again, nowhere to be find it seems. So far Bitcoin is still following that red line i posted in my previous chart. Now that purple wedge was just a thought of mine of what the price could do the coming days, so that support line is a pure guess. So don't think we will bounce up from that line. The low is around 7800 now so it would be a good level to find some support though. As i mentioned in my previous analysis after looking at some of the big Alt coins, well its bad guys, it's really bad. Only a big squeeze up could safe all of them. Now that wedge does indicate we could something like that the coming week, but that would mean we need to follow that red line to form a wedge.

Earlier today i over estimated the market because i thought we could see a a bounce from the 8150/8200 low. We did see a small one but it stayed within that descending channel from the 8600 low and even accelerated down the past few hours. We even went below the previous low so the market is clearly weak at the moment. For now i think the 7800/7700 have to hold, otherwise we could see a big drop the coming days that will probably take us to the low 7K and i don't want to say it but most probably back in to the 6K's. But if the 7K breaks, i think we have to assume we will see a very big drop that will break the 6000 as well.

Now the past few months Bitcoin has been moving within a very big triangle and 8500 is the center point at the moment. As always within triangles the break out can be on both sides so we have to stay objective and assume both scenarios can happen. My followers know i have mentioned the past week or 2 that we are at the 50 yard line at 8000/8500 for the longer term picture of Bitcoin, that was because of that big triangle. Even though price is below that middle point now so a break downwards has a bigger chance to happen, that purple wedge could bring things in balance again. That's the reason i drew it because i think there is a very big chance the market (whales) will make another move to confuse both sides again before really taking a decision. IMO i think it's 75% sure that we make a big drop the coming period. When i shorted the market at the 9970 high i said that as long as we stay above the 8700 we would have to assume we are still in a strong uptrend, after a while it became obvious we would drop more but above the 9K i kept saying that as long as we stay above the 8000ish we have to assume we could make a higher low and continue the uptrend. But the market has weakened allot the past few days so the chances have increased that the whole rally from the 6500 was just another fake rally. My early followers probably remember when we were at the 6500/7000 that we needed a big rally to make all the bears bulls again. Said that 8K levels could be enough but that 9K levels would probably do the trick. From the looks of it now, it seems that it was just exactly what has happened now.

What can i say guys, i am not making this up or creating this. I am just trying to explain the story the charts are trying to tell me, what the game plan of the big guys is. I am doing my best to figure out their game plan and to save or earn some money with that information. Just like i did at the 11.500 high a few months ago and like i did at the 6500 a month ago and yes, just like i tried to do at the previous high 2 weeks ago. So don't blame the messenger :)

Don't forget to like if you appreciate what i am doing here :)

David

Previous analysis

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Market tries to bounce up, but no buyers to be found yet. It’s still around my purple support line (also the more obvious support from the rally in April). It should hold with some margin, otherwise things can turn very bad very quickly I think

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From the looks of it now, even though at first glance it’s still weak, I think the price is stabilising now. So we could start to see a small correction up. If Bulls can get it above the 8000 again than things should cool down. So I think that we could go up now, but I am not trading it because the market is clearly bearish on the low time frame. I wish I could give a more clear view for today.

So as long as we stay above the 7800 with a max of 7700 I think we can go towards 8200. I am behind my screens today and for the rest of the also very little so I am not able to watch the price action to get any clues from that. Good luck trading :)

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About all the pm messages, I will try to answer them all later today

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I took a quick ride home to post an update guys. Looking at the chart it's still crap :) But there is a good possibility that it will form a small inverse H&S here. But to remain strong it should not drop below the 7840. If bulls manage to push it above the 7940ish than it could trigger a target towards the 8105. This level is also the old resistance line of that former channel. If bulls even manage to break that level than we should be able to push towards the 8200 again.

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Alts are looking worse than Bitcoin, those suggest another drop. So the longer it takes for Bitcoin to go up, the bigger the chances increase that we will make another drop. Think Bitcoin has to go up within the next 5 hours! Almost can't believe i am saying this, a few months ago a pattern like this at this spot would take half an hour, now it's taking half a day

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So the previous low support broke and we have an acceleration down again. That purple wedge is still possible, just have to adjust the lines. But as it’s moving now, the chances have decreased allot. I think it’s quite sure that we will make a big drop again the coming weeks. There are no levels now between 7800 and 7000 that could be seen as support. So catching the low is a pure guess at the moment.

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I thought there was chance of a low at 7800, because volume increased, therefore showing more but volume as well. So buyers catching the price, but clearly selling pressure is much bigger and therefore we just continued to drop even more.

This shows again how mean (this) market(s) is! It just keeps on dropping without a bounce, therefore not giving the people who are long since the 6500 lows, a chance to sell their position for a decent price. Because most are waiting for a bounce to sell, but drops like this makes them even more desperate. Because now it seems the drop will be unendleslly and people with long position get hope during each small bounce, but the bounce is to little for them to close their positions.

Than it will just on dropping like this, and you wait and wait and wait until desperation kicks in, thinking the whole market will drop to zero even. Than all the noise (news reports and analysts turining very bearish) kills the last sparkle of hope you have left. And than you start to think, well better to have a least a few bucks instead of zero, let’s just sell everything because I don’t even care about the money even more. This market has disappointed me so much it has become a principle question (that’s what you tell your self). I don’t even want to be in this market anymore. I will sell everything I got! That’s how people sell at the lows and buy at the highs.

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Now this story can’t help you of course, because nobody can tell where the low will be, could it be here, at 6500, maybe 5500 or even lower. That’s why planning ahead is so important and the need to forget about hope is a necessity. Whales abuse hope, at lows and at highs. It’s like they know exactly when and how to do it. I wish I could give you more positive news guys, but I am not controlling the market.

Yesterday it was within that descending channel, broke downwards and accelerated to the 7800. Now it even broke that big channel, when you draw the lines from the 8800 and 8600 high. This shows the market has no buy support at the moment. And the support level of that very big triangle I mentioned earlier, is getting very close now. I will post a chart of it later when I am at home. But just draw a line from the 6000 and 6500 low, and from the 9990 and 11.700. That picture is quite scary. Still hope, but since we have dropped this much, chances are bigger we will break that support.

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Small chance we have a bullish wedge on the 1 min time frame, I can’t judge the price action and the volume is not really confirming it, but maybe there is hope that we see a small squeeze up now. So chances are bigger for this, but as all patterns, it can go both ways. If it drops below, it could accelarate even more to the downside

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First small step of that wedge I just talked about, if Bulls can push further than maybe shorts will take profit as well, producing a squeeze

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They have to push through now! Within a few minutes, otherwise it will probvably repeat the other failed rallies and continue to drop

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Here we can see that channel i was talking about earlier. We can also see how the price kept on falling out of one channel and accelerated and even more when it dropped out of that bigger channel.

We are at a similar stage as that previous small inverse H&S that clearly failed. This one looks better but bulls need to push the price back in that big channel, only than could things cool down and can we start to think about a real consolidation.

We can see the blue and red line, the blue one shows a weak rally now that could change this action into a bear flag. The red one shows a more bullish outlook, but i think the only chance is if the price pushes straight through to the 7700ish. Only with a rally above the 8000 sometime today, can we think of a real low and that we continue up the coming period. Those chances are very low in my view, less than 20%.

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A zoom in of that picture, here its a triangle/bear flag. So a quick push higher could save the bulls, otherwise it could just keep on dropping. We have droppen 1200 point already without any significant correction It didn't work at the 8800 so now we will see a test if an even 400 cheaper bitcoin attracts buyers

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Even though it's still a bear flag, not a convincing push up yet, i don't think it is. From the looks of it, i think bulls are trying slowly to push back a little. Best case for bulls they stay above the 7600. But that small trend line of that possible flag should be the max.
It's inside that big channel again so that's a positive signs, well at least nog a very negative one, maybe that's a better way to describe a more realistic picture.
I think that orange circle won't be a challenge this time but the 79550/8000 will be. Don't think that one will be easily broken

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Actually this one

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Just no strength at all!

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So far each bounce has only been a small consolidation, even the last one at 7400/7500. Remember when i said there is no support level between 7800/7000 (update 15 hours ago), the current price action is only confirming that now.Since i have not seen or heard about a real catalyst to push the market down so fast i am almost starting to think is there still some news out there that some now, but we don't. You know what my general view was, but to be honoust i really did not think it would drop this fast. The support of the previous low broke already and that bear flag from the update above as well of course. In this picture we see a bigger picture, but this flag is normally much to small (in time) for the whole drop from 8600 to 8400. So i don't know what is going on, but it it's not good (for the bulls)

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These things i noticed myself after a few days of trading of crypto. My followers know for a very long time already how much i talked about this issue. It's things like this that i mean, that needs to be out of this market before we can some real growth. All the cheating/fraud/scams whatever need to get out before people could start to trust this market. Of course for the people with long positions it's not good at the moment, but on the long run it's a good thing. These are the whales they are talking about, who keep on playing with us each day!

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Just keeps on dropping, every bounce gets sold! That black line below, is the support line of that very big triangle. Always use a wide margin of 200/400 points for a pattern like this, but it's getting very close. As i mentioned earlier, if the 7K gets broken, i really expect bad things to happen.

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Bulls need to step up soon, need a push higher within the hour I think, otherwise we have to assume we drop towards 6800/7000 today

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Still no whales ready to buy, only positive think i can think of now is a small bear trap, drop below the flag and than jump up again. This flag shows a drop towards 6900

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So they did ALMOST what I said, drop below the flag, usually they do it a little bit more, trapping bears who trade the breakout and than squeeze up. But it’s still a small jump, they need to push through within a few hours. This is not a 400/500 point squeeze. We have seen this little jumps fail more than enough. But there is some hope for the Bulls at least

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Here we can see that small bear trap, what i thought would go like 50 points lower. Anyway, it has formed a small bull flag, just broke out but no real squeeze yet. If it takes to long than the chances increase of a fake breakout. The target of this flag is around 7700, it bulls manage to do that than they can take it back into that bigger channel, which could mean the safe zone, for now at least.

When zooming out, we could say that we bounced of the support line of that big triangle, but it's almost certain the low levels will get retested again. Unless we will see a big rally above the 8000 again, forming a V shape low. Unless something like that happens we still have to assume the lows will get tested at least but probably even get broken.

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The bull flag is still okay, bulls want to push higher but bears keep pushing it down. Think bulls will win this one but should stay above 7480 and max of 7440

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Bulls are just so weak lately i almost feel sorry for them. It's not over yet, but the power of the rally from the low is completely gone now! Now it will probably take allot more time, assuming they will make it of course. I see 7440 and a max of 7350ish for a drop, below those levels a break of the low will probably happen

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Was a good bounce from the 7440, lets see if they can push through and produce another squeeze

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So far it's still a weak rally but it could keep on going of course. But this is not the kind of rally that shows we can assume the 7200 is the low for the coming period. Almost sure it will be tested again around that level. But when, can't say.
Been busy all day answering all the PM messages for the service, almost half way :)

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Now this green support area should hold!

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Bulls are pushing it, the support area is almost breaking. Problem now is, they cant afford it to drop back towards the 7460, because than it will form a small H&S. They need to follow the blue line. Market is still weak, so difficult to say which one it would choose. Normally i would say the blue one after the big drop we had, but still no convincing signals that bulls are taking over again on this time frame

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This is what the bulls among need to hope for, another small push up towards the 7650, make a strong and stable bull flag there and than push through the neckline of this possible inverse H&S. Than it could rally towards the 8000/8100. But it's a looooong way to go and it will be a big fight.