Bitcoin Alternative Price Action to Consider

2018年3月2日

Firstly, I would like to say that this is just a prediction and that I do not believe this to be the highest probability outcome (I expect there are plenty of analysis looking at exactly that already) but rather an alternative possibility to be aware of. Now ill make my case. Looking at the order books on Gdax Kraken and Bitfinex its very clear that there is heavy selling pressure on Bitcoin right now and low buy liquidity, meaning that the price is pushed back much more easily than up from an orderbook liquidity standpoint. Looking at the indicators, RSI will soon be oversold on the 4 hour and we see that the macd has formed a lower high even though the price is higher signaling weakening momentum (also known as bearish macd divergance). But we have broken the long term trendline resistance and sentiment is in favor of the bulls.
With that in mind the bulls will no doubt defend any downtrend attempt ferociously but when we get to an oversold zone and some start taking profit I expect 1) the walls will increase in size as the new buyers put their limit orders in 2) the bears to come in heavy with market order sells and 3) very few buyers as we become more oversold to defend against the short term downtrend. If we see the bears make an extremely strong initial push with a huge red candle I would expect the 10400 - 10500 ranges and an ascending triangle to form and if the profit taking is very short and we break the double top then all this is nonsense. Nevertheless its good to explore the possibilities, hope this helps.

2018年3月8日

ノート

got the first two moves right and made profitable decisions on the long and short plays but we did not hold the support and the triangle is out of the question

2018年3月15日

ノート

no consolidation bearish count back in question