In a prior predictive analysis/forecasting, the technical reasons where outlined to support a reactive rally to the 260.00 see prior analysis here: .)
At this point, the expected rally towards 260.00 remains in force, as price surged and carved a higher high, and is now likely to have found that once-resistance/now support in the geometry's 1-3 Line.
The Fibonacci scale highlights correlations with the foreground geometry, wherein its 1.414 represents its reversal level at the geo's 5-prime, its 1.000 highlights the geo's conservative trigger level, namely Point-3, 0.618 defines the approximate level of Point-4, which defines a high-probability of attainment, whereas the most distal, at 0.786 represents a possible Cypher completion level.
These levels are likely to be visited at the probability rate defined here, but the overall picture remains submissive to bearish whims, per Predictive/Forecasting Model.
David Alcindor Predictive Analysis & Forecasting Denver, Colorado - USA
Based on te Geo's "OffSet Rule", Price has NOT attained its target, which rests at the price level corresponding to Point-4. For this reason, expect that the spike that occurred today points to the directional intention of price, but that it may not yet represent an exhausted rally.
Bulls have to climb that bloody murk of a hill and tend to long-term wounds.
However, looking at the longer term analysis, bears remain in charge. This means that on a short-term basis, bulls might be capable to bayonnette their way up the slippery slope, but bears have the upper hand, still.
A clear break above 297.95 would change the story.
David Alcindor
4xForecaster
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29 JUN 2015 - UPDATE:
From Twitter/LinkedIn:
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BTCUSD likely to retrace to Pt-4 level per OffSet Rule; Bears still in force:
Hi David, June candle is Green, Engulfing candle entity three months prior. BULLISH?
4xForecaster
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Hello @ambition1, Yes, on a pure candle reading basis, this could be interpreted as a bullish signal. Volume comes into play in that candle as well; It will meet significant headwinds ahead whenever it ever reaches the base price level of the 6-8 preceding candles.
David
4xForecaster
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26 JUN 2015 - UPDATE:
From Twitter/LinkedIn:
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BTCUSD: High-probability support at geometry's Pt-4; Model still bulish; Targets intact:
Hello @itsheng - This is one that I would consider having a lower probability, simply because it takes its shape off of the impulse move immediately to the left. However, it does line up quite well. It's just a matter of probability. If it occurred in the middle of a larger consolidation, then it would carry a higher probability.
Based on te Geo's "OffSet Rule", Price has NOT attained its target, which rests at the price level corresponding to Point-4. For this reason, expect that the spike that occurred today points to the directional intention of price, but that it may not yet represent an exhausted rally.
Bulls have to climb that bloody murk of a hill and tend to long-term wounds.
However, looking at the longer term analysis, bears remain in charge. This means that on a short-term basis, bulls might be capable to bayonnette their way up the slippery slope, but bears have the upper hand, still.
A clear break above 297.95 would change the story.
David Alcindor