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Last chance to buy-in coming up? $8,300 -7,800

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Novice but I've managed to predict the last 2 bottoms so 3's the charm, right?

- The market is prepping and testing resistance past $8,600 right now calculating the requirements to push back up to the channel - now at $9,900 (not ).
- Based on historical drops (previous years) I'm expecting a slight retracement then a little more consolidation before the run to break the channel. FIB estimates retracement back to $7,800 which I think others are predicting - It would make sense to retest support.
- RSI and other indicators look good
- With the positive news in the market I can't see another drop beyond this unless there an exchange is hacked.
- Biggest gains will be EOS, NEO, Ripple. I'm gonna miss analysing BTC.
- Excuse the messy on the charts :)

Open to other theories.

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Note that I've underestimated the depth of drops before which is why if it does drop I'll buy on the way back up rather than guessing the bottom - hence the 8,300 on the return. If it goes up then I've lost the gap from $8,500 to where I buy back in at which for me is worth negating the risk for.

My last 'bottom' target of 7,300 was based on resistance which was pretty obvious to most, I think those going long now are nodding to analysis but paying more attention to the G20 news which will reduce the hesitance from bigger investors - thus TA is only one factor that can be superseded by macro events. Those going short are providing solid analysis but trends change.

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I'm still bullish but I think the nerves are showing in the crypto community.

I believe that If you look back on trading view you will see that there were more short appraisals of the BTC market during November and December than there were Long - despite the massive gains!! Natural Behavioral Economics wins out - Loss Aversion.

I do still anticipate a retracement but do not think we will break the parabolic trend line / channel. If we did then the Market Maker is a bastard!! :)

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Well, the retracement/drop looks to be happening - helped by a centralised Exchange and a rightly pissed off teenager.

As we near the near the end I think 8,330 to 7,551 will hold for a good a day or so to develop enough bull signals to get those people on board who are holding out for a further drop. A decision has to be made in the next 48 hours either way. If it goes down beyond this I'm gonna hate all those calling a £6k bottom ;)

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Following up on this idea.
Retracement complete I'm expecting a bounce off 9,100, down to 8,600 support before a run for 9,500 and break the trend line.
$8330 was a reasonable call but I did not commit a trade as I expected a deeper drop so missed some of the action. I'm pleased I did as I made the call that the risks were too great and I felt that if 8,300 was broken there would be a big drop (which I think we were close to but I also noticed a slight uptick in volume). Yes, missed a few % but as a novice I'd rather be cautious in this crazy market! I also had a hangover so wanted to avoid making an emotional call :))

Still Bullish

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Looking at the 1hr RSI and Volume we are primed to make a run. Eyeing buy ops

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If it fails to break through... meh