Following Bitcoin's aggressive selling of the past weeks that caused near 50% in losses, it is time to look at Jean-Paul Rodrigue's Stages of a Bubble.
This had to be customized on Bitcoin's state of the 2018 correction. It doesn't exactly follow the classic bubble price action as the "Fear" and "Capitulation" stages lasted longer on a downward consolidation technically applied on a Falling Wedge.
It appears that the bear market has entered the "Despair" stage and based on this study that we conducted some time ago (tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/zK7bM01i-Bitcoin-Is-this-the-bottom/), the "Return to the mean" will be a lengthy process, unlike Jean-Paul Rodrigue's classic model.
We still have the bottom priced within 2,600 - 2,800.
Now that everyone is a genius bear with perfect charts and such, ive been steadily accumulating.
InvestingScope
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@Xueqq, In case you are referring to our team, we have been shorting bitcoin since the 17,000 level.
ReallyMe
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@Xueqq, that strategy is quite dumb and can lead you into a financial desaster (100% loss and such). Basically, what you do, you are gambling, i.e. "speculating" that the price will start to rise some day and then, when you wait long enough, it will make up for all your losses, you've been making until now. But as of today it is not certain at all, that this will ever happen. It is much smarter to wait for reversal and buy on every dip when it is on its way up.
kardia
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@ReallyMe, It can also be argued that it is dumb to wait for an unreasonably low price. Crypto is known for shooting up in value in a relatively short time. This is especially the case with alts. If you could get a promising alt for 1 cent, then why not? That same alt could go much higher in just a matter of hours under certain circumstances. I don't think it is appropriate to imply people are dumb for accumulating at these prices. People could have valid reasons for doing so. It's their money. They have a right to spend it. Better to put that money into something that has the potential to grow than to waste it on junk food.
@krakatoa, good piece of insight. In defense of them though, when price rises by 20+%s for multiple consecutive weeks, one can be easily carried away (similarly like now with the 25% selloff).
kardia
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@krakatoa, Bears won't be satisfied unless Bitcoin goes to zero. Even if it goes to 1k, they will still be calling for lower prices and creating FUD.