BTC bulltrend continuation, these are the key points!

hi guys. after i quoted long, btc shooted to even 10300!

now, i was busy scalping altcoins and earning profits. now lets see what will happen.

now we see mixed signals.

now, 7.2k was the long term uptrendline for btc from 3~4ks. as you see in chart, we broke through resistance

of the falling channel. now, people talking about bull flags of btc, that could happen, but i think, most likely

it would confirm its bottom of the uptrendline at 8.2~8.3k if that could be good bottom.

for a while, btc would not fall down because of ripple and bitcoin cash. ripple(swell at november 7th),

bitcoin cash(hardfork at november 15th). it will start its retracement from early november, after all

good events are done.

so easily from now at 9ks it goes to 8600~8900(200ma support, and channel support, daily ichimoku support),

and comes back up to 9400 zone. real retracement would start after that.

the point is will btc break the long term trendline when it starts to retrace? that is the key point.


now, my idea, my hope actually is it retraces but, not breaking the long term trendline. if the trendline at

8.3k~8.5k is not broken we will see continuation of bulls, probably halving run.

historically, when 200/50ma daily dead crossed, after the price bounce over it, it retraces below. however, the fractal now, seems little different, where, alt coins and btc broke out of falling channels, which indicate, it could make higher lows, can continue the trend.

for now, the most safe haven for continuation is that, btc should have closed daily above 96, 97 at first pump, and go sideways above 10600, 10700.

so if this is continuation of btc rally, i think it should come inside the initial triangle channel of 10ks, the green box in below chart, but now its just showing tweezers above that channel so not yet confirmed.

3d wise, i think it should have done the purple line if this is continuation.

4hr wise, macd dead crossed, but because of alt coin pumping, there will be more bounces.

so now is time where, you have to secure your profits and try not to all in at market high temperatures, especially when, btc is showing lower highs in 4hr divergences.

but, if btc would surpass 10300 zone, and go higher to 10600, 10700, make high on 4hr rsi, now that would

be whole different story. then, that we have to think about bull flag accumulation.

but for now, i think we should calm down a little bit.

so for mid term longs(if you are conservative), 8600~8900 area seems good for scalping to 9k zones.

but basically when ripple and bitcoin cash event is over, market will go in retracement in november.

regards

コメント:

basically i am thinking this would happen.