We see a bearish engulfing candle showing up on the weekly chart and with just over 24h till midnight UTC no one in their right minds should think that is going to change. We see the MACD was converging on the weekly chart but it is becoming clear we will either fail to break through entirely now or we will only have a token breakthrough and then crash back down. The CM_Ultimate, a very powerful composite of various moving averages, has not turned green during this whole uptrend, and will not turn red after this engulfing red candle.
Here is the log chart with ichimoku cloud (standard settings). No matter how you tinker with the settings (log versus standard, standard setting versus "crypto" settings) we are going down. Way down. I post this chart a lot. People need to see it and believe it. I have gone over quantitative tightening in detail but I'll hit he key point: we pumped about 14T into the global money supply from late 2009 to late 2014. Late 2017 the Fed announced the US would start pumping its share of the money supply out and other central banks have followed suit. Even if we didn't have this unprecedented bull run the price would be drifting down against fiat. The weekly conditions look bad, and the monthy conditions look bad. The bias is bearish and it has been bearish since BTCUSD topped at $8,500 with hidden bearish divergence right at where the log resistance line is. Using the normal charts is fine, but if whoever you follow here on TV, or on Youtube, or steemit or anywhere ese only was looking at the normal charts and calling a break out without using the log chart you know their analysis is.... incomplete (to be polite). Log chart shows we failed at resistance Standard Setting show break out I don't have time to make a study of it now, but there have been plenty of price action breakouts of a standard resistance/support line to the log resistance/support line and often those can be impulsive and lucrative, especially for crypto, so I am not saying unfollow anyone that uses the standard price axis. But long term trends in crypto need to be understood on the log chart otherwise you will think a breakout is more bullish than it should be, like many people doing TA were when we broke the the standard resistance line at $7,700 and then seemed lost when we stopped at $8,500 and have been falling ever since (because they didn't see the hidden bearish divergence).
If you are going to use the RSI and MACD or similar indicators you need to know how to habitually look for standard and hidden divergence or you will lose a lot of money, and I can tell you I made the same mistakes and am speaking from experience.
コメント
⋅
I mentioned in a comment below that I don't realy know what we are seeing as the price action consolidates. I did notice an inverse head and shoulders as we moved sideways and that performed well enough (I didn't do any trades on it) and now we have seen the price action go back to support. What support? I am not sure it is the rising support in red, which doesn't really make a pattern with the red resistance, or it is part of a blue channel consolidating sideways, which is lacking the points of contact I would like to see on the resistance.
I explained this chart in the comments but the long and the short of it is "this does appear to be a place were we could see BTCUSD bounce but the nature of that bounce should be watched to see if the uptrend is sustainable.
However, if we are channeling sideways that puts us at risk for another severe drop south. This isn't financial advice, but my positions are being protected with tighter than normal stops. I might get wicked out if we have a failed breakout and reversal but that is a risk I feel I need to make.
The market generally looks at crypto in isolation, but you're one of the few people who consistently talk about it in the context of the larger macroeconomic factors that are in play. Please accept my enthusiastic thumbs up.
This_Guhy
⋅
@neos, I think to make the bearish case you need a macroeconomic context to get past metcalfes Law, which estimates the price of an asset on its adoption. Blockchain and crypto should have exponential adoption so I feel you need a strong case to be against that for any intermediate timeframe.
Sidenote, U don't put a lot of stock into talk about a ETF for Bitcoin. GBTC is cheap and readily available so any hype about a ETF won't really drive adoption. I will have stops in place if it jerks the price around and might try to take advantage with a swing trade but my global bias for tech is bearish.
divan1004
⋅
Breakout w/o making a higher high is just a continuous downward. I think.
Keep watching.
Thanks for your sharing.
This_Guhy
⋅
@divan1004, Think of your typical elliott wave impulse count. If you don't know about hidden bearish divergence might think this uprend was wave 1. There are people doing TA on tradingview that thought we were seeing wave 1. But due to the bearish divergence we know something like the chart below isn't happening. There are plenty of chart formations with lower lows that predict a reversal. Falling wedges being the first one that comes to mind. And there is a lot of incentive to look for reversals, especially when you are dealing with an asset that might go x10 in a year.
UnknownUnicorn2138412
⋅
Thank you for share your idea, but I disagree.
Just now BTC price is testing RSI historical bounce level, also it has been testing the neckline of the previous inverted H&S and by the moment support is holding. Let's see how BTC develops next days.
This_Guhy
⋅
@pcarballeda, BTCUSD does seem poised for a bounce. The current candle does look like it could be a morning star doji in the making, and that is also making the RSI look like it found support and the H-MACD might be swinging up. This doesn't 100% guarantee a bounce but the chances are high enough this would be a place for those with a high risk appetite to go long with a relatively tight stop. If we do bounce the nature of the bounce and how it looks on the indicators will be important. The last two tops have had something resembling a double top and so if we see divergence set in on this top it will forecast a continuation down.
One thing I don't like about this current consolidation is I don't know what I am seeing. I have been seeing inverted and standard H&S all over the place, it seems to be the faddish fractal of the moment, and they seem to be performing confirmed by volume. But after we had this micro I HH&S perform everything looks sloppy. In general I don't like to trade without a pattern but I am biased bear on the macro level so I am just defending my short with a stop loss, hoping for a decisive dump to sub 6.8k.