If BTC decides to take the slower route, which I really hope, we could see some months of sideways action. The other possibility would be the gold fractal, if it now pushes through 13.9k.
I however hope for this sceario here, because this would allow all indicators to cool off, then having more steam for the next push where BTC will attack the old ATH. And the longer BTC needs, the higher the ATH will be.
Therefore I would really welcome such a scenario. But of course we know: BTC doesn't care about what you or I would like to happen, hehe. So we should be open for different scenarios.
That's why I draw all scenarios that come to mind here :) Only one scenario is ruled out for me: The ABC correction type scenario that many bears still cling to. Poor bears XD
So then, let's see what route BTC will take. This path would lead to new ATHs, after ATH rejection at 20k, in early 2020, where BTC would then really go beyond 20k. Let's see.
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Some people were asking why I rule out the ABC correction type scenario, that (mostly butthurt) bears are wishing for, hehe.
Here they are:
1. The timing for C would be at or after the halving. Absolutely unlikely, everyone buys before the halving because people know it will rise afterwards. 2. The number of wallets and transactions is very high, therefore BTC has a very high fair value in the 10k range 3. Usually the B wave would not go as high. Back in 2014-15, it actually only went to the 0.5 fib level, now it went to the .618, a much stronger move, on much higher volume than back then 4. Macro-economic reasons, QE going on, devaluing of currencies and negative interest rates 5. The growth channel has been historic since 2010, why would it fail now? The C would put us below the alltime support. 6. Bakkt futures and ETF on the horizon=> Institutional money will pour in (it already started with LedgerX). 7. BTC reclaimed (!) the logarithmic support line since 2015-2017 for the first time EVER! That is an ultra strong move, much more bullish than back in 2014-15
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This thing here is unfolding nicely. See also my other chart for the weekly picture, corresponding to this bull flag here:
I think you were/are right.
it will not drop below triangle and some altcoins will do double bottom end of Oct. like ETH, EOS, NEO vb. then alt season will start.
thanks for your charts.
SebastianofMoon
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@alpdemalp, Hi, thanks a lot :) Yes, it looks indeed as if the most boring and unspectacular option for bitcoin will actually be the right one :/ I had also wished for more action, but BTC likes to do these plateaus. Altcoin season will come maybe in October, but at the latest a few months later. Altcoins will have an insane bullrun, it's like a golden rule of crypto, hehe!
GekkeBulgaar
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Triangle seems to playing out like you predicted ;)
inflex56
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Simply. Good.
rafik35
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can you in few rods explain why you definetly rule out abc scenario?
SebastianofMoon
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@rafik35, Of course :) The funny thing is, another person had the same question, he wrote me a message. I will write the reasons in the update.
it will not drop below triangle and some altcoins will do double bottom end of Oct. like ETH, EOS, NEO vb. then alt season will start.
thanks for your charts.