I tried to make a good reflection of the whole cryptomarket. I only could do this with coins that been trading for more than a year. Otherwise the chart did not work. So I made a chart with the following coins: BTC, ETH, XRP, LTC, DASH, NEO, MONERO, XEM
If people also wanna chart on this chart use the following ticker: COINBASE:BTCUSD*16692550+BITFINEX:ETHUSD*92862174+BITTREX:XRPUSD*38622892459+BITFINEX:LTCUSD*53927233+BITTREX:DASHUSD*7701656+BITTREX:NEOUSD*65000000+BITTREX:XMRUSD*15377976+BITTREX:XEMUSD*8999999999
About the charts The first chart you see is on the logic alghoritme. The second one in normal view.
On the first alghoritme we see a big rising wedge! On the second one you see the beautifull elliot-wave pattern. The 5th wave or 3th wave up reached the 1.618 fibonacci level, the same level als the last crash.
I think there could be an abc-correction wave. With a total retracement of the whole cryptocurrancy market of 35-55%.
Some other information to think about. Correct me when i'm wrong! First crash: -20 june the total marketcap of cryptocurrancies was 115 million. -16 july the total marketcap of cryptocurrancies 67 million
Trigger: The first bitcoin fork?
Second crash: -1 september the total marketcap of cryptocurrancies was 174 million. -15 september the total marketcap of cryptocurrancies was 109 million.
Trigger: China Ban?
The last and upcomming crash> It should be time for a correction of the total market! I think there is a huge change.
Trigger: I really think the Tether usd hack could trigger a crash.
Last thing I want to say, I try to do an objective view. I believe it will happen. You don't have to agree with me, take your own conclusion!
So the bitcoin should multiplied by 68.727.000.000 / 138.000.000.000 = 50%
The ticker code is now: COINBASE:BTCUSD*16692550*0,5+BITFINEX:ETHUSD*92862174+BITTREX:XRPUSD*38622892459+BITFINEX:LTCUSD*53927233+BITTREX:DASHUSD*7701656+BITTREX:NEOUSD*65000000+BITTREX:XMRUSD*15377976+BITTREX:XEMUSD*8999999999
I made a new and better representive chart:
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Look at this! We just hitted the 2.0 level and almost 10k btc price.
this is excellent work, good job, very useful for everyone. I'll be tracking this going forward and using Fib levels and other indicators to watch the market as a whole.
I tried to short BTC yesterday thinking this Tether incident was indeed the straw that breaks the back, but got stopped out as it rallied insanely strong, i've never seen a market rally like that on such bad news before,
with no pullback, every 2 downticks were wiped out by 7 to 9 upticks... it seemed as if money was being printed or teh market manipulated.. i've been in the market for 20 years, never have i seen anything like this. The stock market doesn't work like that for sure. Not sure what the catalyst is at this point, maybe an investigation into Tether and Bitfinex? your thoughts?
ansonphong
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@Krisworldwide, Only since you asked for thoughts ;) Tether has little to do with the current success of BTC, and this market isn't quite the stacked house of cards that our current banking system is.
Nobody I know ever used Tether because no person I've ever met trusts it in the first place. Only weak hands fall for schemes like Tether, real Hodlers keep their BTC. It's written in stone, Tether is a scam to suck your Bitcoins, it's artificial stability in a market that has never known stability.
Who thinks that there is actually 700M in Bitfinex's vault somewhere to back these Tethers? They can't even deal with a hack 1/10 that size, and they issue cheap stock in their shell company.
The point is that strong hands in BTC smell the stench of Tether and corrupt exchanges a mile away and never touched it in the first place... real BTC hodlers would never use an instrument like Tether in the first place, and so have no impulse to sell in the case of it's failure.
Even a total disappearance, or a theft of 100% of Tether would result in nominal impact on the price of BTC. You can use that to prove me wrong when it happens, because it will happen. If so, that'll be a great day when I'm vacuuming up cheap BTC from suckers who cared about Tether.
A year ago China was the biggest trader of BTC by far, now it's illegal in China, yet almost 10X growth. What? Bitcoin doesn't care about yout Yuans or your Dollars or Tether for that matter, it's a parallel dimension, with strong hands who run on a deeply alternate paradigm.
lookatbowen
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Could this be the bubble that everyone "NOT IN CRYPTO" is gleefully hoping, dreaming will happen so they can get an opportunity to get in.
It seems FOMO is taking hold globally and that will drive the prices up.
The question is;
Are the prices we see now totally overblown and overpriced?
And who is to say the prices are overblown and overpriced?
Based on what?
Effectively we only have a little history on cryptocurrency.
A year or three ago, nobody was talking blockchains, distributed ledger technology, smart contracts, cryptocurrency, maybe one or two late nighter geeks at the most ... but now every Tom, Dick and Harry including (me) has crypto or knows someone who is getting into it, or knows someone reading a book about it. Even my die hard stockbroker who was totally against Crypto six months ago and told me I was mad to buy BTC, is re-thinking and re-evaluating his thought processes. Many businesses, industries and sectors are talking about this amazing technology. Just look at the Internet, YouTube, Jamie Dimon, Goldman Sachs, Credit Suisse, American Express, everyone has an opinion good or bad and all of this will fuel the prices. The more it gains traction, the more the prices are going to rise.
Obviously with everything, there comes a time when there needs to be a correction, given how many folk are buying cryptos in a frenzy, without doing research, due diligence.
I saw a chart somewhere recently that showed Bitcoin has gone through seven such crashes this year (all fairly big drops between 25% and 35%) and every media, banking, know-it-all-not-in-crypto, jumped onto the bandwagon and said "THERE it crashed, we told you so, it is a doomed technology", and yet what happened, BTC recovered and went forth to greater highs. I am sure there will be many more.
I think there needs to be a big correction to cleanse the cryptoworld of all the fake, pointless coins that have no substance behind them. The cryptos that have a good strong underlying business behind them will have a chance to shine.
arcadian20
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Hi CryptoPredictions,
I just found your analyzes and they look very pertinent :D I have a question for you: How would secure your money in case of whole market crash? Thanks and good luck!
aleromer
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@cristim20, i would say USDT...but recently there are some rumours that it may be a scam. I don't know if those rumours are true or is just people trying to trick you into not using it
UnknownUnicorn1413254
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@cristim20, Yes usdt or euro in bitfinex are good options.
But i whill short when we have confirmation of the retracement.
Shockinalive
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@CryptoPredictions, what would be your 'confirmation' of the retracement? I quite didn't understand that part..just asking!
UnknownUnicorn1413254
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@Shockinalive, Good question! For me I open the short when I see a strong signal on the bitcoin chart.
Something like a completed head- shoulder pattern on the 1h+ chart. Or when we see atleast 5% drop in price.
I tried to short BTC yesterday thinking this Tether incident was indeed the straw that breaks the back, but got stopped out as it rallied insanely strong, i've never seen a market rally like that on such bad news before,
with no pullback, every 2 downticks were wiped out by 7 to 9 upticks... it seemed as if money was being printed or teh market manipulated.. i've been in the market for 20 years, never have i seen anything like this. The stock market doesn't work like that for sure. Not sure what the catalyst is at this point, maybe an investigation into Tether and Bitfinex? your thoughts?