Volatility has fallen off a cliff. This next big move is likely coming this week. Whichever way it breaks likely results in continuation of that move. My invalidation point for my long positions is a return under 30k.
Find a point anywhere on that chart where BTC didn't have a parabolic move to the downside and then proceeded to spring massively. Every big move up was created because of a big drop down creating a spring. This has not happened which gives no reason to believe the next move is up. The red indicator can flash red for up to 4 months, it has been just over half a month. Price volatility is down, so why would BTC change a 6-month downward trend during low volatility times? Doesn't really add up from my perspective. Interested in your case