The exchange rate continues to decline in trend. However, we are now looking for a correction in the exchange rate. Its size may be 19%. If our analysis is correct, the exchange rate can reach 4549 usd. That is why we take long position positions within a day. In the longer term, however, we expect a downward trend. Short-term long-term price is 4549 usd. Our long-term short-term price continues to be 1700 usd.
Then again todays high is nowhere near the 50% retrace so maybe won't repeat.
Felix000
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Did a bit more research into most recent consecutive fractal lows using my custom MACD and those MACD blue line flips mentioned previously (white verticals). See what I discovered. 50/50 no guarantee will repeat.
meszaros
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@Felix000, It is very good. Like. I think your strategy is more relevant to this Tradingview side of me. I also look for these fractals in the exchange rate. I also bind the shapefractals to the value of ATR, so I consider them the same shape, 1. whose shape is similar, 2. the ATR environment is similar. This reduces the number of faulty signals. Because in itself every indicator generates many false signals.
Felix000
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Had a look at the ATR tool and it did not make any sense to me. Maybe its something I got to read up how to use. Just saw a line but did not see how I could use it for generating signals. When I tried to add it to the existing pane with chart it just disappeared from the screen.
Anyway going back to my chart above, so far today's high has not reached 50% mark only 15 or more minutes till end of day. It will be interesting to see if will run out of steam. My study sample did not go back very far so can't be sure needs to reach 50% but will watch what happens @meszaros,
meszaros
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@Felix000, I understand. ATR based strategies are a separate area. It has many elements. Not sure you should use it. Especially if you already have a well-functioning strategy system. My strategies are based on ATR. But that does not mean they are better. This is also a kind of strategy. It can be calculated with its target prices, and the stop locations can be well defined. But these are not even theoretical strategies. They are as accurate as you can see in my analysis. One thing is certain that my analysis is always with a stable strategy, even if it turns out that it did not work.
Felix000
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Cool when I have some spare time I may take another look at it by marking all the high and low points maybe and see if I can combine with other signals in a useful way. Thanks @meszaros,
Felix000
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My custom MACD set up (6, 13, Close 31) Log format. What interested me was when blue MACD flips up. That day's low if broken will then be a signal the market going lower next. How did I work it out. Well by looking back not at a big sample (always risky). I think I may have looked at set ups with consecutive fractal lows. I had recently done a study of consecutive fractal lows where the signal line and I think the MACD line were travelling up instead of down which I thought odd (only found three maybe like it dating back to 2013). Anyway, that's what made me think to add comment to your posting. I'm adding a photo shot of what I mean. Hope it shows up
Felix000
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Cool can't wait. If I had to pick a critical support level going forward based on MACD studies it would be the one that's going to be formed today 20 Dec 18 . I turned bullish on 17th Dec soon as it broke 10th Dec high on BITFINEX. Two day High Low volatility i.e. 10th and 11th had been one of my key break out areas. Result was whipsaw this time but my 2018 sample of signals indicated only one whipsaw per signal so good enough to turn bullish. I don't post all my studies. I may do one explaining how I came to the conclusion that today's low 20 Dec 18 may be a critical support level going forward.
meszaros
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@Felix000, It is very good if different strategies point to one another. Nevertheless, we take the time to write down your strategy that led to your decision.
meszaros
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@meszaros, sorry for the last sentence. Correctly: We are pleased to announce in a few sentences what strategy led to your decision.