In my last 2 posts on BTC I've shown a strong bearish bias, as seen in the charts below. First with an idea of bearish continuation of the developing trend and then more recently with the Head and Shoulders idea, looking for a break of the neckline which we've recently seen with a sharp break down of the market, dragging the entire crypto market with it.
So now that we've seen a huge drop, where do we expect to go from here? In the H+S idea I listed 30k as a potential target, and I still believe that's reasonable. As the trend continues the risk/reward begins to shift and a relief rally may be coming soon, but it may be short lived.
As the title says - don't be a hero! We saw the peak price on the 10th November, and when we zoom out we see a steady decline since. For those looking to go long, what are the odds that you pick the exact bottom here?
If you want to be long, I can understand using this as an opportunity to DCA in, or waiting for a rally on shorter timeframes to try and catch a small leg up. But don't enter this market thinking you're going to catch a perfect bottom - it's highly unlikely, and especially if you're using leverage you will likely get burned.
Trust the trend. If you're late to the party, there's still further room to run. If you'd rather wait for a pullback before going short there's a decent chance we could see the 38-40k range again in the coming days, but make no mistake - Crypto is in a bear market right now.