In my view most YEN pairs have completed the bullish cycle from moving of the 2011 low. Hence many have formed a top or are in process of doing so.
CAD has been on weaker spectrum of major currency group and this is evident from CADJPY. Please see below a monthly chart for big picture view - in which you will note that it has topped at upper end of the potential rising trend channel and has almost completed abc zigzag lower of this high.
However, this could not be the end of the correction of the move of the 2011 low and even 2009 low, and on Monthly it looks like it has just started.
Nevertheless as noted above the initial zigzag move of the high appear to be nearly complete and could form intermediate low in the region of 94.50 -94.0 area.
Summary based on H4 time frame:
1. Has retraced 88.6% of the move from 16th Oct to major high which confluence with other fib ratio. 2. Wave counts suggest the of the abc zigzag wave C appears near complete with internal 5 waves requirement for wave C and the wave 5 of C also has minor 5 wave counts potentially almost complete. 3.Potential RSI divergence forming suggesting that the current decline could come to end soon. 4. The anticipated move retracement to the upside could be back to 99-100 offering decent opportunity with stop @ say 93.50 or even 92.50. If you are able to monitor the price action then better entry could be found with much less stop loss. 5. This retracement will offer more clues on likely longer term move. On to watch.
As always, do your own analysis for your trade requirement. Select to follow me and the chart for notification of future updates. If you like the analysis then please indicate this by thumbs up, comments and sharing with others. If you have an alternative idea then please share for all to learn from.
Thank you for taking the time to read my analysis.
Forgot to mention, this charts has been updated and republished. Here is the link tradingview.com/v/vuSYSEP6/
DanV
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CADYEN as mentioned in when published in secondary Monthly charts is in major reversal mode like most other YEN pairs. As such our effort to go long around 94 for a counter trend or retracement trade did not have the follow though and hopefully out money management would have got us out as scratch trade. Reviewing the chart it seem now that the wave 5 has extended. It could now complete around 90.60 -90 zone where we have structure support from daily chart and some Fib confluences. Hence to monitor and see if the current cycle completes around that zone. Will consider republishing if appropriate to clarity. In the meantime here is an updated chart.
ForexTools
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DanV
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Interesting. Thanks.
ForexTools
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DanV
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Thanks for sharing your chart. I agree and it adds more details and reason for possible long entry and exiting any short.