1. If we drop -16 % from our HIGH, we will go into a Bear Market (red dotted line) 2. 80 % of the time we will also drop to -24 % according to historical data 3. 73 % of the time, if we go into a Bear Market, we will also go into a recession.
4. AND an average bear market last 1.5 years with a -34 % percent decline in price! METHOD:
- I have superimposed the 2007-2008 Crash on top of the new already in process ABC-correction. It matches with waves and divergences on e.g. RSI. - I have taking FA into consideration: a. Real Estate Crisis in the bigger cities - US Real Estate Bubble about to implode also b. Expectations to when and how much FED and chairman Powell's will raise interest rates c. Looked at the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) and compared it to other Market Crashes
RESULT:
We will go into a Bear Market 30.9.2019
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Here is the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) OECD Data. It clearly tells us when the consumer confidence gets too high, we are more likely to experience a Market Crash.
At this time we are already above before 2007-2008 Crash Level.
MUST SEE: I told you about how we had real estate crisis in the bigger cities around the world.
Now take a look at US also - the bubble is about to implode.
XHB index, the Homebuilder Index, is where we want to look if we want to get an idea about the real estate market in US. It's a really good leading indicator, and are composed of sectors like: homebuilding, construction supply, home improvement, electrical components and home furnishing etc.
It predicted the market crash in 2007-2008 - notice how the index already crashed in 2006 before the real crash happened. Also notice how 2018 has been a huge bloodbath. This could very well be a sign of an coming crash, IF we continue down.
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First the Tariff Crisis between Trump and China - Then the Huawei case, where US got Huawei’s CFO Meng Wanzhou arrested in Canada - later she granted bailed out after 1 week in detention after protests from China.
All this has let to disbelief in the upcoming US-China Trade Deal.
But both Chinese officials and the Trump administration have now made a concerted effort to convince market participants that negotiations will soon bear fruit.
Since then optimism over trade negotiations between the U.S. and China helped drive gains for stocks overall .
This will keep US Stocks increasing in price the next months - also the fact that next week at the Federal Reserve (FED) Meeting - We might see interest rates rise.
But experts believe that FED Chairman Powell will be able to calm the market, so we can see further growth and postpone the Market Crash for now.
You are a little late to the party! But I agree either way!
bitstomoon
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@TEXAGG22, What if the B wave breaches and goes over the 5 wave, does that invalidate this theory?
TEXAGG22
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@bakkah, yes
Simon_says
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Amazing work!!
WasabiChart
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Thanks for the great insights!
Here's my view about Dow based on the Treasury Yield Spread being about to cross under zero:
lbrayton
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I think the 2008 recession needs to be examined more closely, we may not have completed the retracement until Sept 2011 in what can be viewed as a "running C" due to Quantitative Easing.
racethehare
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@D4rkEnergY don't fall for it brother. Read my chart post... The talking heads are everywhere. Ask yourself, when have we passed an ATH, found support on the ATH, and then crashed? Look back since the stock market's existence. 10 years of stagnation to fall into a recession? No way, stay strong! :)
marko378
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W O W, you still cheat people, coinrunners.vip , D4Y.TR4DE VIP, VIP membership, premium signals, 3 ETH year, 10 ETH year, get rich, 400% , 500%.
This person is a fraud! Dont send him nothing!
PaperChazeTrading
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You can´t look at it just technically... Look at the central banks. Look at the geopolitical strategies with the US and China and others. If it all comes together (maybe) next year we will see another crisis which will be nothing compared to 2008. But for now it´s just a unconfirmed wild guess... but it will come soon.