After today I'm very much considering another leg up on the indexes after a bear trap tomorrow to 3850's. The 18ma weekly should act as support and IF we come down to it, the 4 hr rsi will be showing hidden bullish divergence. I'm using the video as a walk through of my thought process covering SPX DXY GOLD and USOIL. I urge caution for bears at this time. I hope it's helpful.
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at 9:20 I review my thoughts about what's going on - if you want to skip ahead.
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18ma sitting at 3863 on ES, they may panic sell to that area this morning. Still expecting that to be support at the moment.
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a fall on the hourly chart would set up a nice bullish divergence. Looking for one more low.
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still expecting lower, rsi on small time frames too hot.
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looks like a stop hunt, - if i'm right the market reverses and sells into monday
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welp, no drop. The 4hr rsi looks better now for bears - already starting to be extended. A fall and lower low on monday - tuesday and we'll have bullish divergence on the 4 hr chart. I'm still betting on it and I'm a buyer if it happens.
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surprising day, but 4 hr rsi now has good room to fall. I still expect this starting monday.
This rising wedge looks a lot like the last bigger one and I think this one is going to pull back the same way. Tmr we will get a leg up to that big trendline then either fall back or rally more.
the_sunship
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@cathirzel, if we get back to the big trendline, we're likely going to break it and everyone will get supra bullish for a few weeks at least.
cathirzel
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@the_sunship, I'm ok with that! I made those statements like I know, lol, just an idea.
Only_Losses
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Curious if you are still interested in a pullback to 3800s early next week
the_sunship
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@Only_Losses, yes, still am. We'll see how monday goes but spx ending the week with a hanging man candle is promising for bears. Now the 4hr rsi can fall a lot more. We maybe in a triangle.