The common currency has been restricted to a narrow range of 1.1130-1.10 for four straight trading sessions including today.
So where is it heading then?
The ideal answer is to wait for a breakout and that is correct. But, we can try and judge which side the breakout could be.
Note that out of last four trading sessions, the pair has clocked intraday highs above 1.1120, but ended the day well below 200-DMA around 1.1093 levels.
When we read this against the backdrop of a retreat from the high of 1.1186 (July 5 high), it makes sense to expect a bearish break below 1.10 handle.
A day end closing below 1.10 handle would open doors for a re-test of Brexit day low of 1.0911. On the higher side, we need a convincing break above 1.1126 to signal an upside break. However, that won’t be enough as July 5 high stands at 1.1186 and needs to be taken out as such a move would add credence to rising bottom formation and could yield 1.13 levels.
The only factor that catches my eye from bullish view point is the fact that volume on July 5 (big drop) was well below 50 day average.
So where is it heading then?
The ideal answer is to wait for a breakout and that is correct. But, we can try and judge which side the breakout could be.
Note that out of last four trading sessions, the pair has clocked intraday highs above 1.1120, but ended the day well below 200-DMA around 1.1093 levels.
When we read this against the backdrop of a retreat from the high of 1.1186 (July 5 high), it makes sense to expect a bearish break below 1.10 handle.
A day end closing below 1.10 handle would open doors for a re-test of Brexit day low of 1.0911. On the higher side, we need a convincing break above 1.1126 to signal an upside break. However, that won’t be enough as July 5 high stands at 1.1186 and needs to be taken out as such a move would add credence to rising bottom formation and could yield 1.13 levels.
The only factor that catches my eye from bullish view point is the fact that volume on July 5 (big drop) was well below 50 day average.
