A policy-packed week, with monetary policy meeting in the world’s major economies (Fed, BoJ, BoE), and the potential for guidance regarding future interest rate actions, albeit cuts in the prevailing rates are expected. In UK, voting race begins for the next Prime Minister. In the data-front, ficus turn on inflation and Retail sales.
Monday – 17 June 2019
Inflation Report Hearings (GBP, GMT N/A) – The BOE Governor and several MPC members testify on inflation and the economic outlook before the Parliament Treasury Committee.
Tuesday – 18 June 2019
RBA Minutes (AUD, GMT 01:30) – The RBA Minutes are expected to shed some light regarding an eventual rate hike (RBA is cautiously optimistic on growth, inflation).
Consumer Price Index (EUR, GMT 09:00) – Prices are expected to fall in May to just 0.3%m/m from 0.7%, whilst the overall inflation expected to stand unchanged at 1.2%y/y.
ZEW Economic Sentiment (EUR, GMT 09:00) – Economic Sentiment for June is expected to rise slightly at -0.5 compared to -2.1 last month, however the negative reading means pessimists once again outnumber optimists and that escalation in US-Sino trade relations affect the outlook.
Wednesday – 19 June 2019
Consumer Price Index (GBP, GMT 08:30) – Prices are expected to move up in May, with overall inflation to increase at 2.2%y/y, compared to 2.1% y/y last month.
Consumer Price Index and Core (CAD, GMT 12:30) – May CPI is expected to run at a 2.0% y/y pace, matching the 2.0% clip in April and coming in just ahead of the 1.9% clip in March.Hence, the focus is on the "core" CPI figures.
Event of the week – Interest rate Decision and Conference (USD, GMT 18:00) –Fed easing expectations having plateaued (Fed funds futures now fully discounting a 25 bp rate cut by the July FOMC). However, there is not much of a chance for a rate move next week, but the FOMC is anticipated to make an important change in its statement, removing the word "patient" and likely replacing it with language similar to Powell's comment from June 4 where he said the Fed will be "closely monitoring the implications of these developments" on trade and other matters.
Gross Domestic Product (NZD, GMT 22:45) - The Q1 GDP is expected to grow at 0.7% compared to 0.6% last quarter, while at an annualised rate should fall to 1.8% from 2.3%.
Thursday – 20 June 2019
Interest Rate Decision (JPY, GMT 02:00) –The BoJ should maintain its current extraordinary level of stimulus as they wait and see how global growth progresses this year. Hence policy is expected steady once again. Among the core central banks, the BoJ is firmly poised to be "low for longest".
Interest rate Decision and Conference (GBP, GMT 11:00) – BoE should remain on hold now until the Brexit D-day, while the Brexit process has essentially been frozen in motion as the Conservatives go about the business of selecting a new party leader/prime minister. If the transition runs smoothly we could see another 25 bp hike quickly thereafter. The consensus forecasts suggest no change in the policy rate in this meeting and an unchanged 9-0 MPC voting.
Friday – 21 June 2019
Markit Manufacturing PMI (EUR, GMT 07:30) – The Preliminary Manufacturing PMIs in Germany and Eurozone are expected to increase in June, to 44.5 and 48.1 respectively.
Retail Sales and Core (CAD, GMT 12:30) –Canadian sales are expected to slip 1% in April, with a 0.9% gain excluding autos, following a 1.1% figure for the March headline and a 1.7% increase ex-autos.
Markit Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 13:45) – The Preliminary Manufacturing and Services PMIs are expected to increase in June, to 52.5 and 53.2 respectively.
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Monday – 17 June 2019
Inflation Report Hearings (GBP, GMT N/A) – The BOE Governor and several MPC members testify on inflation and the economic outlook before the Parliament Treasury Committee.
Tuesday – 18 June 2019
RBA Minutes (AUD, GMT 01:30) – The RBA Minutes are expected to shed some light regarding an eventual rate hike (RBA is cautiously optimistic on growth, inflation).
Consumer Price Index (EUR, GMT 09:00) – Prices are expected to fall in May to just 0.3%m/m from 0.7%, whilst the overall inflation expected to stand unchanged at 1.2%y/y.
ZEW Economic Sentiment (EUR, GMT 09:00) – Economic Sentiment for June is expected to rise slightly at -0.5 compared to -2.1 last month, however the negative reading means pessimists once again outnumber optimists and that escalation in US-Sino trade relations affect the outlook.
Wednesday – 19 June 2019
Consumer Price Index (GBP, GMT 08:30) – Prices are expected to move up in May, with overall inflation to increase at 2.2%y/y, compared to 2.1% y/y last month.
Consumer Price Index and Core (CAD, GMT 12:30) – May CPI is expected to run at a 2.0% y/y pace, matching the 2.0% clip in April and coming in just ahead of the 1.9% clip in March.Hence, the focus is on the "core" CPI figures.
Event of the week – Interest rate Decision and Conference (USD, GMT 18:00) –Fed easing expectations having plateaued (Fed funds futures now fully discounting a 25 bp rate cut by the July FOMC). However, there is not much of a chance for a rate move next week, but the FOMC is anticipated to make an important change in its statement, removing the word "patient" and likely replacing it with language similar to Powell's comment from June 4 where he said the Fed will be "closely monitoring the implications of these developments" on trade and other matters.
Gross Domestic Product (NZD, GMT 22:45) - The Q1 GDP is expected to grow at 0.7% compared to 0.6% last quarter, while at an annualised rate should fall to 1.8% from 2.3%.
Thursday – 20 June 2019
Interest Rate Decision (JPY, GMT 02:00) –The BoJ should maintain its current extraordinary level of stimulus as they wait and see how global growth progresses this year. Hence policy is expected steady once again. Among the core central banks, the BoJ is firmly poised to be "low for longest".
Interest rate Decision and Conference (GBP, GMT 11:00) – BoE should remain on hold now until the Brexit D-day, while the Brexit process has essentially been frozen in motion as the Conservatives go about the business of selecting a new party leader/prime minister. If the transition runs smoothly we could see another 25 bp hike quickly thereafter. The consensus forecasts suggest no change in the policy rate in this meeting and an unchanged 9-0 MPC voting.
Friday – 21 June 2019
Markit Manufacturing PMI (EUR, GMT 07:30) – The Preliminary Manufacturing PMIs in Germany and Eurozone are expected to increase in June, to 44.5 and 48.1 respectively.
Retail Sales and Core (CAD, GMT 12:30) –Canadian sales are expected to slip 1% in April, with a 0.9% gain excluding autos, following a 1.1% figure for the March headline and a 1.7% increase ex-autos.
Markit Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 13:45) – The Preliminary Manufacturing and Services PMIs are expected to increase in June, to 52.5 and 53.2 respectively.
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.