Uncertain Times Makes Gold "Fun Again"

2020年4月25日

Expecting a top of $1790- $1880, in the short term, however, not supported by chart patterns. I expected to see a correction down to $1430 on March 16 and didn't quite make it. The correction was expected because the Inverted Head and Shoulders target was reached, but Gold continued to climb. Gold just broke out of Ascending Channel (Bear Flag) and appears to be heading towards the all time high... but why.

Purely fundamental reasons for Long.
- Economic Uncertainty
- International trade closed down (could go both ways)
- Political Corruption
- Reserve bank currency inflation (its not worth the paper its printed on)

Technical Analysis for Long
- Broke out of Ascending Wedge
- Minimal resistance above and lots of support below

However

Fundamental reasons for short...
- Mining is ramping up (in the Western world) increasing supply
- Can't eat Gold (real, useful, tangible assets rule in economic downturn)
for that reason, Gold may not be easy to cash in for common people

Technical Analysis for Short
- Reversal Divergence on the RSI (sometimes takes years to play out)
- Hidden Bearish Divergence on RSI (8 years of)

Best advice I got for trading Gold: Gold doesn't go up in value because of economic recessions, Gold goes up in value because people lose trust in government."

Conveniently they tend to happen simultaneously

Overall, because we broke out of (a bearish) Ascending Channel and hit INV HNS target (potential correction), I feel Gold has no choice but to revisit the High. From there, I will be looking for a Cup and Handle pattern with a correction as low as 1450-1350. After that, it is anyones guess, but i am favouring a new bull run, as cup and handles are bullish patterns seen at the top of a range, which Gold is very close to (note, this is not a cup and handle yet).

Things that could effect Gold price (IMO)

- War
- Trade
- Gold as a Commodity
- Political upheaval
- Crypto as a new world currency
- Tangibility and hoarding
- Mining

I am uncertainly Long and looking for opportunities to buy