Navigating NAS100: How to Trade the Upcoming Downtrend!!!
I. Technical Analysis Breakdown
1. Elliott Wave Theory
Wave Count Summary:
The chart shows the completion of Wave 5 based on the hourly time frame, confirming a bearish setup.
Key invalidation point:
On the 1H chart: 19,571.1, meaning a break below this will confirm the extended Wave C.
On the 4H chart: 20,335.3, confirming a potential reversal if this level holds.
Wave 5 Projections:
Target range: 19,570.2 to 19,450.2 (for bearish continuation).
Invalidation for bearish bias: A move above 20,405.3 suggests an accumulation phase instead of distribution.
2. Wyckoff Distribution Phases
Current Phase: We are in Phase B, indicating a bearish trend.
Upthrust in Phase B (UT): Observed, signaling exhaustion in price momentum.
Sign of Weakness (SOW): Confirming bearish sentiment with lower highs.
Last Point of Supply (LPSY):
Key area: 20,189.7 - 20,350.2.
This region aligns with the premium area and can act as a resistance zone where sellers may dominate.
Bearish Continuation:
The price could move toward support levels between 19,570.2 - 19,450.2 after potential exhaustion at LPSY.
3. Harmonic & Fibonacci Retracement Levels
Optimal Trade Entry (OTE):
OTE aligns with Fibonacci retracement zones (0.786 at 20,007.6) and the 0.826 retracement (20,147.9).
Shorting Opportunity: Focus on bearish positions when price revisits these zones, ideally between 20,007.6 and 20,350.2.
Harmonic Targets:
The next downside harmonic target coincides with 19,570.
A price reaction could also occur near 19,450, aligning with Wyckoff’s potential distribution phase climax.
II. ICT Weekly Range Development
Weekly Bias: Bearish, confirmed by Wyckoff and Elliott Wave projections.
Weekly High (WH): Likely formed at the LPSY zone around 20,189.7.
Weekly Low (WL): Expected near the 19,570 - 19,450 zone by Thursday/Friday.
ICT Daily/Weekly Ranges:
Monday to Wednesday:
Potential manipulation with an upward move toward LPSY (~20,350). Look for possible liquidity sweeps near this zone.
Thursday to Friday:
Price may drop toward the Weekly Low (WL) around 19,570 as institutions look to cover their short positions in the discount zone.
III. Fundamental Catalysts
Key economic events that will likely impact the NAS100 throughout the week:
U.S. Interest Rate Decision:
Bullish (BUY NAS): If the Federal Reserve announces a rate cut or holds rates steady, equities may benefit.
Bearish (SELL NAS): If rates are raised, equities (especially NAS100) could face downside pressure.
United States Manufacturing PMI (SELL NAS):
A weak PMI will signal economic contraction, driving the NAS100 lower.
ISM Services PMI (SELL NAS):
A poor reading will reflect economic slowdown, leading to further downside pressure.
U.S. Unemployment Rate (BUY NAS):
Lower unemployment could cushion the bearish trend by suggesting economic resilience. However, an uptick in unemployment could increase bearish sentiment.
IV. Trading Strategy and Execution
1. Key Levels for Short Entries
LPSY Zone (Resistance):
Watch for shorting opportunities around 20,189.7 - 20,350.2.
Ideal points for entering short positions are at premium areas or during spikes into resistance levels.
Optimal Trade Entry (OTE):
Watch for shorts near the OTE (0.786 - 0.826 retracement) between 20,007.6 - 20,147.9.
2. Downside Target Zones
First Target: 19,570.2
Aligns with Wyckoff’s Selling Climax (SC) zone.
Final Target: 19,450
Coincides with potential Wave 5 termination in Elliott Wave and harmonic extensions.
3. Risk Management
Stop-Loss Placement:
Above 20,405.3 (invalidation level), protecting against bullish reversals.
Short Position Execution:
Ideal timing for shorts:
Monday to Wednesday: Focus on potential false bullish moves, with the price reaching LPSY levels.
Thursday to Friday: Target the 19,570 - 19,450 range, where price may complete its bearish cycle.
V. Conclusion: Week Ahead Trading Plan
Bearish Outlook:
Multiple confirmations from Elliott Wave, Wyckoff, and harmonic retracements suggest further downside in NAS100.
Execution Plan:
Short around LPSY (20,189.7 - 20,350.2) and OTE zones (20,007.6 - 20,147.9).
Fundamental Consideration:
Stay vigilant for significant economic releases, particularly interest rates and PMI data, which could cause volatility and either support or invalidate the technical setups.
Risk Management:
Keep stops above invalidation points (20,405.3) and target 19,570 - 19,450 for profits.
1. Elliott Wave Theory
Wave Count Summary:
The chart shows the completion of Wave 5 based on the hourly time frame, confirming a bearish setup.
Key invalidation point:
On the 1H chart: 19,571.1, meaning a break below this will confirm the extended Wave C.
On the 4H chart: 20,335.3, confirming a potential reversal if this level holds.
Wave 5 Projections:
Target range: 19,570.2 to 19,450.2 (for bearish continuation).
Invalidation for bearish bias: A move above 20,405.3 suggests an accumulation phase instead of distribution.
2. Wyckoff Distribution Phases
Current Phase: We are in Phase B, indicating a bearish trend.
Upthrust in Phase B (UT): Observed, signaling exhaustion in price momentum.
Sign of Weakness (SOW): Confirming bearish sentiment with lower highs.
Last Point of Supply (LPSY):
Key area: 20,189.7 - 20,350.2.
This region aligns with the premium area and can act as a resistance zone where sellers may dominate.
Bearish Continuation:
The price could move toward support levels between 19,570.2 - 19,450.2 after potential exhaustion at LPSY.
3. Harmonic & Fibonacci Retracement Levels
Optimal Trade Entry (OTE):
OTE aligns with Fibonacci retracement zones (0.786 at 20,007.6) and the 0.826 retracement (20,147.9).
Shorting Opportunity: Focus on bearish positions when price revisits these zones, ideally between 20,007.6 and 20,350.2.
Harmonic Targets:
The next downside harmonic target coincides with 19,570.
A price reaction could also occur near 19,450, aligning with Wyckoff’s potential distribution phase climax.
II. ICT Weekly Range Development
Weekly Bias: Bearish, confirmed by Wyckoff and Elliott Wave projections.
Weekly High (WH): Likely formed at the LPSY zone around 20,189.7.
Weekly Low (WL): Expected near the 19,570 - 19,450 zone by Thursday/Friday.
ICT Daily/Weekly Ranges:
Monday to Wednesday:
Potential manipulation with an upward move toward LPSY (~20,350). Look for possible liquidity sweeps near this zone.
Thursday to Friday:
Price may drop toward the Weekly Low (WL) around 19,570 as institutions look to cover their short positions in the discount zone.
III. Fundamental Catalysts
Key economic events that will likely impact the NAS100 throughout the week:
U.S. Interest Rate Decision:
Bullish (BUY NAS): If the Federal Reserve announces a rate cut or holds rates steady, equities may benefit.
Bearish (SELL NAS): If rates are raised, equities (especially NAS100) could face downside pressure.
United States Manufacturing PMI (SELL NAS):
A weak PMI will signal economic contraction, driving the NAS100 lower.
ISM Services PMI (SELL NAS):
A poor reading will reflect economic slowdown, leading to further downside pressure.
U.S. Unemployment Rate (BUY NAS):
Lower unemployment could cushion the bearish trend by suggesting economic resilience. However, an uptick in unemployment could increase bearish sentiment.
IV. Trading Strategy and Execution
1. Key Levels for Short Entries
LPSY Zone (Resistance):
Watch for shorting opportunities around 20,189.7 - 20,350.2.
Ideal points for entering short positions are at premium areas or during spikes into resistance levels.
Optimal Trade Entry (OTE):
Watch for shorts near the OTE (0.786 - 0.826 retracement) between 20,007.6 - 20,147.9.
2. Downside Target Zones
First Target: 19,570.2
Aligns with Wyckoff’s Selling Climax (SC) zone.
Final Target: 19,450
Coincides with potential Wave 5 termination in Elliott Wave and harmonic extensions.
3. Risk Management
Stop-Loss Placement:
Above 20,405.3 (invalidation level), protecting against bullish reversals.
Short Position Execution:
Ideal timing for shorts:
Monday to Wednesday: Focus on potential false bullish moves, with the price reaching LPSY levels.
Thursday to Friday: Target the 19,570 - 19,450 range, where price may complete its bearish cycle.
V. Conclusion: Week Ahead Trading Plan
Bearish Outlook:
Multiple confirmations from Elliott Wave, Wyckoff, and harmonic retracements suggest further downside in NAS100.
Execution Plan:
Short around LPSY (20,189.7 - 20,350.2) and OTE zones (20,007.6 - 20,147.9).
Fundamental Consideration:
Stay vigilant for significant economic releases, particularly interest rates and PMI data, which could cause volatility and either support or invalidate the technical setups.
Risk Management:
Keep stops above invalidation points (20,405.3) and target 19,570 - 19,450 for profits.
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