NG Natural Gas August futures contract has been declining on cancelled LNG shipments and low national demand. US supply keeps steady outpacing demand. US demand started improving on June 21st due to reopening of NY-NJ-PA economies. However, Texas extended its lockdowns, counteracting positive effect of the East Coast. Seasonal heat is high. But with 40-50 August LNG shipments cancelled, the market may remain in oversupplied state for months to come.
August 24th may be a potential turning point for natural gas. Prices are likely to continue decline under current oversupplied conditions. Analysts see target support at $1.25, 1995 low, and then at $1.00, all-time low. Resistance is seen at $1.52, and $1.60 levels.
Technicals: Daily chart is pointing to a neat-term bottom with potential upward move within declining channel. NG rolled into August contract, which was trading higher than July contract, which could explain a Friday pop. There is a possibility for a near-term price improvement to $1.65- $1.75 level (tentative), between July 1st and July 17th, with continuing decline after mid July.
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Since the chart has reached $1.75 level, it may go higher from here to $1.85 level.