更新済

NQ Range (09-03-24)

NAZ has been in a range for most of August, will need to bust up or break down. Now 19,671 is TLX that will follow yellow or white arrows. Looking for Drop at 671, posted yesterday on August Post. The September Chart will show the YTD Open at 17,027 (look for retest), the Fib Levels and YTD High. Volume was low in August and the O/N did have many redirects back up (after a drop in Reg Session). Just watch for any Push/Pull for the Short trades, no P/P juts stay Long. O/N redirects have been consistent, use those also but watch the Pump/Dump into the Reg Session.

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Range for Tuesday. Go Fed.

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Reg Session Selling, as usual. 142 may bounce.

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142 did hold and go flat or reverse as Dead Zone will try and pop back up, stall out re short.

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NAZ may retest 19,400 above 142. FOMO/BTD, Go Fed.

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18,992 is next support. 1 Way NAZ is rolling, nothing new. This all may go back up tomorrow or in O/N and if not lower we go.

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18,992 hit and pass.

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725-142 is range for O/N

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IDS 27, Hit Blue MA and kept dropping. Air Pocket busted from last week (Holiday Pump and Dump).

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The range today was 771 points and 1 way, one of the widest YTD. FOMO/BTD got caught.

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9/4 Update, Range 840-940 is break out for next move. No O/N Pump is bad sign. Now the Bad News is bad news spin is playing out, need to pay attention to Noise and opposite thoughts or think upside down. Which is right side up, I think. Noise, Noise Noise.

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940 is rejecting, Go Fed

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840 now, watch the reaction

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Bad news is Bad, for now. We need a Noise indicators, crazy but accurate. Trading has become a Cartoon and clown show.

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Opened and still in range 840-940

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992 is KL to watch from yesterday.

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992, down goes Fraizer

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Right hook

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Miracle, Joe gets back up and Knocks out Ali. Only in the Dead Zone, Rigged.

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Under 992 again, 19,00 to 18,725 is range for next move.

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9/5 Update, TLX Short call was 19,671 and TLX support/drop target is 18,200. play range in between.

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Watch triangle/flag break out.

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Noise, NA just playing the KL's. Just be aware of the O/N rig pop into the Friday-Monday Long move and if that does not play out the NAZ will drop big. This may happen near Tuesday (if not prior).

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IDS view, pure garbage PA. Looks like to lifts up are drop offsets, NAZ may be getting ready to tanks.

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FYI, volume since 8/6 has been about hlf of prior months and that is not a good thing. Should any significant selling show up we may see a decent drop. VIX is ready just need a push.

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NAZ staying in the O/R (open range) for 2 days, may be base for pop or start of exiting. Need to see if O/N try to pump up into Friday lift. 940-840 is still range.

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9/6 Update, NAZ does hit KL 725 in O/N and look for Reg Session move today. The drop in O/N is most likely a Long Set up into Friday-Monday Long Rally. Just not feeling the drop, unless Jobs number shakes things up. Look Long 1st and watch the stall out.

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One odd and new development is how the O/N will drop and Reg Session will lift, only to give it back. This is the exact opposite of what we have been seeing for 2 years or so. With NAZ near ATH we could see a deep decline should the O/N Not lift the NAZ (like it has for 2 years after a Reg Session drop). Rig may me breaking down. Sorry for mixed call, key day so do not chance and watch the tricks.

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1st move call and rejection under 142, go Short.

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Got to 920 on 1st move. Plat 725-925 for break out.

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Near 960 Target, needs to stay above 840 to be safe. O/N to Reg Session PA Change is next clue.

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Above 725 is the U Turn back in the range. Good Luck today.

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Just what I thought, the old pattern has changed and Friday-Monday play is broken.

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Old pattern is breaking down and need to see what happens Monday. No lift and even lower we go.

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9/9 Update, NAZ is 8-9% off ATH and 17,027 is 2024 Open Price. The Red Lines are TLX's and we are moving from TLX Short call at 19,671 to 18,200. Need to see if what happens Monday.

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9/9 Update, So far the Monday O/N redirect up is playing out as usual and this all may go back up big. This is what they do and how the keep it stabilized. Like I have been saying for 2 years, Long in O/N, Short in Reg Session, Long in Dead Zone and Close is Random.

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Air Pocket and drop or retest to 18540 may play out, hold there is a Long.

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This could be a major O/N Pump/Dump so if the 540 retest does not hold, look short but I highly doubt that since it is Monday. Typical BTD/FOMO day, Go Fed.

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Long target is an easy 19,200 should this not be a Pump/Dump

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Seems like a U Turn, Good Luck and I am out most of the day.

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Looks like NAZ is just playing basic old KL's and should they keep it up until the close it may try for more lift in O/N. We just knew that the Friday drop would get some redirect back up in the Sunday/Monday O/N. The 19,200 is the weekly upper target for any U Turn play.

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540-20 retest. Long Bounce back to KL 725

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Monday did provide the redirect back up and mostly done in O/N. Nothing has really changed and you may look Long until U Turn stall out. O/N will most likely jack it up more tonight.

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No real Push/Pull today. The circles are direction change signals/warnings. Look for 3 or so after a move and get ready for the whip. Orderly for now.

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9/10 Update, YTD Chart and yellow arrow is next move break out range. O/N weak but NAZ still wanting to go up. need to see O/R selling or back up (some) we go.

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640 retest is likely

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NAZ holding at 680 and will not drop. Dead Zone to lift or head fake to Drop.

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Typical hold up to set up exit. Again, O/N to lift and O/R do nothing. Look for sideways to Close or potential drop.

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725 seems to be Mid Range and above is Long and below is Short. I am gone for the balance of day. Most likely the sideways to O/N Prop is next. Go Fed.

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9/11 Update, NAZ rotating around KL 725. Debate was not a mover, may need some Fed Speak to lift the NAZ and if not look Short under 725 and definitely 18,600.

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The yellow arrow will show how the price action is just moving 100-150 points with stop clean out moves (from previous position). This is basically direction noise until the break out. The next major move is lower and any hold or sideways move will continue to chop like shown here. Go Short and hold Short for the drop and this may be a drop/out or just another drop test.

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Good Luck today, getting that Strong Short sensation. Usually I am 1 day or so early (if not spot on). Let's see if we get head fake Long or straight out Drop.

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Just insane, you have to expect the move and then counter move until the break out.

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9/12 Update, Break out to upside in the Dead Zone and Flat in O/N. Big action yesterday WILL be followed a bigger reaction in next few days. Stall out is 1st signal and NAZ still in sideways range. 19,000 is FIB 50% level and NAZ just above.

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I was out yesterday and it will interesting to see if the KL 671 is Stall to short under. NAZ got juiced up yesterday, not sure why but came off lower KL 18,600 an lifted in the Dead Zone. Still thinking that this will stall out.

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Push/Pull is showing up, need to see if O/N is lift, sideways or drop going into Friday-Monday Long Play.

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Should the Push in the DZ stay up, the O/N will keep it going into Friday and potentially Monday.

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Volume is still relatively low and this pop does have some failed auctions, most likely will set up a drop. Not on this but looking for counter play.

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FA's did get cleaned out, may go back up on a hold.

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9/13 Update, NAZ did clean out the FA zone to 360 and will play in range of 470-360 for break out.

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Circle is Big Action move that looks perfect, too perfect. Most likely a drop offset move to offset the DROP some. Not buying it, bigger reaction will usually follow. Go Fed.

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YTD Daily look at NAZ, range play and nothing new.

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10YN should drop and raise the yield and drop stocks.

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Rigged, use a parachute. Good luck today and watch the Push/Pull show up.

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No gain above O/N high in Reg Session on a Friday is a huge red flag. Need to see how much the weekend O/N in to Monday can Prop it up and if it holds in Monday Reg Session.

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9?16 Update, 625-670 is tough barrier to break through and the prior lift on 9/11 may be drop offset to any Fed Day selling. 142 should be retested prior to or during Fed Day.

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200 points of push/pull

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Monday Breakout Box

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Lower box test, sideways to out lower end.

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200 point push/pull range

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Push/Pull in the Box. Go Fed.

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Once again no lift in Reg Session. NAZ will have to get to O/N to lift or lower we go. The typical Friday-Monday long pop is not working this week so far.

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FYI, the prior O/N session had the fewest Ticks, orders, etc. in a long time. No O/N pop and the NAZ drop will usually follow. NAZ depends on games and tricks in order to stay up. Off Reg Session PA is what to watch, then Reg Session. O/N is still the BOSS, for now. No lift in O/N is the 1st signal.

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Sideways and out should it not get to O/N safe zone.

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No/Low volume Dead Zone has to stay above the white arrow or lower we go. 2 way PA should shake out some Shorts.

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Have you looked at the volume lately? We have no volume, any selling will drop this so watch the stall outs on any typical lifts prior to Fed Day.

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9/17 Update, Now contract change Gap Up (in O/N). All strange lifts happen in non Reg Session periods. This is done for a reason and I would expect a drop test on Fed Day. No hold on drop and lower we go. The drop will most likely base at the point of the Rig Start or 18,500.

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NAZ up but only from O/N Gap, Reg Session no strength. Games and Tricks, Only.

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Gap fill is likely, NAZ may try again for O/N safe zone.

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No strength Reg Session is poking in the Gap. All Tricks and games with ANY Lift, Go Fed.

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NAZ safely gets to O/N Safe Zone and stays out of the Danger Zone Gap.
BTD/FOMO and Go Fed.

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9/18 Update and Fed Day, Go FED. I do not trade on FD. Anyway, the NAZ is staying just above Gap and the Danger Zone. Up in O/N and lower in Reg Session. This may Break Down should the NAZ not hold up through the turbulence.

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Typical 1st move and no hold is an Air Pocket. These usually POP or bust.

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Go Fed, BTD/FOMO to the Moon in Dead Zone or O/N. Just watch the Head Fake if you are Long Here at 19,780.

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Garbage PA trying to get to the Safe Zone of the O/N.

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9/19 Update, NAZ did get to O/N Safe Zone, Did U Turn away from the Gap and Danger Zone and did it WHEN: In The Overnight Off Session. This is the main and only/majority way the NAZ lifts and stays up. There will be a flat Reg Session and then a sell off during a Reg Session and O/N combo and that will be the start of the drop test. Long in O/N, Short in Open Range, Long in Dead Zone and Close in Random.

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Watch 10YN over next few days

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The O/N low volume Long only stabilizing price action can not continue to stabilize the NAZ. Look back at previous Posts and you will see many "air pocket" drops that have erased days and weeks of this type of PA in hours or just a few days. Ride the tide but watch the stall out to drop in a reg session.

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19,900 retest at Open

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20,260 and under is Short and looking for Friday-Monday play to not work and start redirect lower.

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20,250 - 19,670 is range to watch. NAZ needs some strength in the Reg Session.

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No strength Reg Session, Again. Trying for safe zone O/N.

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Fumes and games, Divergence in Reg Session. All O/N lift and sideways in RS.

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NAZ got to 12,200, under 260 and stayed under for drop. Just needs to stay low in O/N. Games may be coming to end.

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NAZ back to O/N High and no growth in Reg Session. Look for the O/N to try the lift and fail in Friday RS.

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9/20 Update, The O/N did go lower some and that may be the 1st sign of Friday-Monday Long play breakdown. NAZ now back a Mid O/R and looking to retest 19,700 on stall out (Wed Mid O/R). No drop, go Long back up for Dead Zone lift in Reg Session. Just watch the Reg Session PA whenever the O/N sells off. NAZ really needs that extra push in the O/N.

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Good Luck today, Circle is Fed Day O/N Pump/Dump set up. Lets see how it plays out in the Reg Session on a Friday.

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Go Fed. Print, Cut and Defer until next Bubble.

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Playing Pump/Dump to the Gap

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Selling in the Reg Session on a Friday, WHAAAT.

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10YN is dropping and adding some pressure.

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400 point dump from the pump, may go back in range until Monday.

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9/23 Update, Last/previous comment above did happen on Friday. Again, typical PA in predictable trading time zones. Now under 12,200 and back for a 19,500 retest. Above 12,200 is strong Long back to the ATH or Moon. Look for O/N and low volume trading time zones to have most of any Long PA.

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White arrow is Friday "back up in range" move. On a Friday after a O/N Pump/Dump, see the pattern or set up?

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Wicks on both sides, No volume to speak of. Looking like big move on the way, NAZ will try for O/N Safe Zone and if not will drop.

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Just watch the O/R breakout.

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The voulme, price action and off session Rig Moves are making it hard to believe that any of the recent lift will stick. This has been the weakest PA that I have seen in years. Boring and slow.

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9/24 Update, So the typical sideways to O/N and then lift in O/N did play out after a flat/nothing Reg Session Monday. Chart below is 2 day PA range bar chart. The PA is light and weak. I think the challenge is with the tricks and games such as, O/N vs Reg Session, O/R play and Dead Zone lifts/stalls. NAZ is looking frail, may see games up and reality down.

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You can see the O/N Pump/Dump or drop offset playing out as we near O/R.

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May be way off but just feels like house of cards and rigs. Any significant selling pressure may really drop these indexes. If you look back for weeks, you can see price to volume divergence. Price will lift while volume is flat to declining. This will usually be followed with a drop or retest lower.

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Air Pocket signal, the white arrow arear will need to fill in. If not, the price will drop as we near Open and this may be head fake long set up for drop in Open Range. Good Luck today, Go Fed, Dot Plot, FOMO all on no volume and most gains happen in the off session (only).

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See comment below about hook long.

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Target hit, Go Fed.

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9/25 Update, NAZ stayed in range yesterday and did Air Pocket drop to Long set up to KL 12,200 and back under the KL. Just uses yesterday update for today and everyday until we see a break out. Go Fed, we need some cuts, stimulus or printing to move higher.

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Nothing is happening with any range break out. Garbage PA. Just wait for the Black Swan Drop to show up.

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9/26 Update, The usual and just nonstop lifting in the O/N continues. This is just so weak as the Reg Session can not lift or maintain any O/N prop. The 30M chart will show long above Box and Strong Short under Box. The Circles are the lift PA O/N zones and the Box is sideways Reg Session PA that was just waiting for the next O/N lift. Visit CME Group site to view past 4 day volume, way off. Games during low volume days are usually set ups for the counter trade.

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19,800 is retest target under Box or mid Box.

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IDS 27, the shaded zones are failed auctions that the NAZ will usually retest. Multiple FA's on low volume in O/N usually leads to retest or Air Pocket.

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On this Post on 9/3, we have the upper target. The lift up has been mostly form off session PA. The chart below is Monday's Intraday Push/pull price action. Should this show up after this lift, look short. Compare the perfect and orderly PA in the above chart to the one below.

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Air Pocket 360 is 1st retest if this is O/N pump/dump.

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360 hit and dropping, Pump/dump as usual.

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FA 260 hit

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FA 215 hit, classic Pump/Dump.

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Sideways to O/N and drop further if no magic lift after this rig job. Black Swan should be next, unless this is set up for crazy Friday to Monday pop. Watch 19,800 for next lower target should heavy selling come in.

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Once again, up in O/N and drop in Reg Session. The pattern continues and should the Reg Session sell big the O/N lift may be off or set up better exit levels for the sellers (which are multiplying).

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Like clockwork, you have a money manager on Bloomberg talking about Black swan territory NOW. Get ready for a retest lower

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Stay short under 20,400

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Today the O/N Rig Group tried to slip one by the Reg Session pro's and got sold off. They will or may try again and any failure lift move may drop in O/N and Reg Session on Friday. I will believe that when I see it. Go Fed and FOMO/BTD Forever.