Nvidia breakdown signals further downside this week

Current Price: $183.11

Direction: SHORT

Confidence Level: 68% (The majority of professional traders highlight ongoing weakness, technical downtrend channels, and critical support at $174.15 as being at risk. Sentiment leans bearish despite some long-term bullish bets.)

Targets:
- T1 = $175.00
- T2 = $164.00

Stop Levels:
- S1 = $187.00
- S2 = $190.00


**Wisdom of Professional Traders:**
I'm seeing consistent caution among the professional traders tracking Nvidia this week. Several traders point out that the price action remains stuck in a downtrend, with multiple mentions of resistance around $185–$187 and support sitting near $174.15. The consensus from the trading community is that Nvidia's inability to regain the 50-day moving average is keeping the momentum tilted toward the downside, especially with competitive threats from Google's TPU chips pressuring sentiment.

**Key Insights:**
The key point here is the near-term weakness that follows Nvidia's last earnings release. Despite strong results, traders observed a “gap and crap” setup, where the initial post-earnings rally quickly reversed. Many traders are watching the $174.15 level closely; a decisive break here could trigger a sharper sell-off toward the May lows around $164. In this short-term context, long-term call leaps into 2028 don't outweigh the immediate technical vulnerability. The repeated failure to hold above $185 shows sellers are defending that zone aggressively.

Another factor to consider is sector rotation. Several traders noted that other semiconductor names like AMD, Broadcom, and Qualcomm are showing relative strength while Nvidia lags. This divergence suggests capital is moving away from Nvidia into peers, which could exacerbate near-term pressure.

**Recent Performance:**
This all played out in recent sessions as Nvidia declined over 12% last month, breaking key technical levels and underperforming both the Philly Semiconductor Index and Nasdaq. Last week’s price closed down 1.8% even as many tech names bounced, underscoring persistent weakness.

**Expert Analysis:**
Multiple professional traders' analysis points to clear downside setups. Several mentioned Nvidia being “bearish unless it breaks 185” with lower-high patterns forming. Support zones at $174.15 and $164 are in play if the trend continues. Many traders highlighted heavy institutional selling, potentially linked to AI bubble concerns. Even those with long-term bullish views admit the near-term chart is unattractive, and that the downtrend channel remains intact.

**News Impact:**
What's interesting is the competitive pressure narrative gaining traction — especially reports about Meta considering Google TPUs in future data centers. This kind of news has already triggered multiple single-day drops exceeding 6%, adding fuel to the bearish case. While the Fed’s policy pivot could help broader markets, traders are pointing out that Nvidia’s specific headwinds—valuation, technical breakdowns, and competitive threats—are more pressing in the short-term.

**Trading Recommendation:**
Putting it all together, I’d look for short setups below $183, targeting $175 first and then $164 if bearish momentum accelerates. Stops should be placed above $187 to limit losses, with a wider emergency stop at $190 in case of a sharp reversal. Position sizing should reflect moderate confidence, with risk kept tight until Nvidia reclaims and holds above the 50-day moving average. This looks like a tactical short for the week, taking advantage of persistent weakness and well-defined technical levels.