We have been working to finish Minor 5 since earlier today which will also end Intermediate wave C and Primary wave 4. Afterward the market will likely find new 52-week lows somewhere around 3400 by September/October of this year. By dissecting Intermediate wave C so far, we notice Minor wave 1 (yellow) was approximately 14 hours long and Minor wave 3 was only 10 hours long. Per the Elliott Wave rules, wave 3 cannot be the shortest. This would imply wave 5 must be no longer than 10 hours long. Assuming Minor wave 4 ended today within the first hour of trading, Wave 5 must end before 1330 eastern time tomorrow. The first set of Fibonacci levels are extensions based off of Minor wave 3 as its marked. The middle fibs are based on Intermediate wave A’s movement and the levels to the far right are the retracement of Primary 4 in relation to Primary 3’s movement. There appears to be some key levels around the 4040 range. This could be the area for the top tomorrow. ALTERNATIVE ANALYSIS This end was a few days earlier than my initial forecast, but plausible. Another possibility is that we are early in Minor wave 3 (likely in the early stages of its own wave 3). If this is true, then we would achieve a new high AFTER 1330 tomorrow. There does not appear to be anything newsworthy to stop momentum in the middle of day so this idea of remaining in wave 3 is likely. If we are in the middle stages of wave 3, we would likely find a top above 4100 early next week. I ultimately think we will begin trending down before the Fed comes out with the official rate. It will likely be 100 basis points or greater as well. We shall see what holds true.
You may be right 4020 is .38% Fib level and 308 is the QQQ .50% Fib so both to drop now...
StockSignaler
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@CapeAfrican, I was monitoring 4020 this morning, but 4012 works too and may be our new top for a few months.
BluNight
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@StonkSignaler, are you saying that our top today is the top until Sep-Oct period? What about the SPY gap fill?
StockSignaler
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@BluNight, Not sure which gap you are talking about but the most recent unfilled gap is from early June. Gaps are not always filled, but this one will fill. The question is does it fill next week of next Spring? In my opinion, we wont know if we actually topped here until we go below 3902 or above 4012. Right now we are roughly split between those two points. If we go below it then we have topped in the short term. If we go above 4012, we could go up toward a probable max of 4136. Wave C has strongest model agreement of lasting 7 days which would be Monday. Wave 4 has strongest model agreement of 28 days which is July 29.
BluNight
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@StonkSignaler, yes the early June gap was the one I talked about. Thank you for the analysis, will keep a lookout for those 2 levels.