The economic expansion and stock bull market has been going on for ten years, obviously overextended. The Fed is raising interests rates that will for sure trigger a recession next year. There's political turmoil and talk that the US President could be impeached! The majority of US stocks are below their 200 day moving averages. The stock market decline that began three months ago is a bear market and is about to go much lower.
No, this isn't what's happening in 2018 its what happened in 1998. In that year the SPX had a 22.4% decline that lasted 58 trading days. The 2018 SPX drop is so far 18.1% in 56 trading days.
The 1998 decline appeared to be a bear market yet it was just a correction within a bull market that continue for another 17 months. Maybe something similar could happen now?
The 86-year Kondratiev cycle beginning in September 1932, when DJIA hit low 41, completed at 3 September 2018 high. So I'm afraid we could be in for a real bear, like no one now alive has ever seen.
The 'grand supercycle' produces a crushing bear market once in every human lifetime (86 year cycle). The bear market from 29 Oct 1929 to Aug 1932 lasted three years and wiped out 90% of market value.
Hi @DaddySawbucks,
Kondratiev cycle! You've got to be kidding me. People are still using this thing? This is one of the most bogus cycles you can find. Its been talked about since at least the 1970's
It was illustrated in the 1978 edition of the "Elliott Wave Principle" and they reprinted the same chart in the 1998 edition - see page 222. In that illustration the K-Wave starts in 1949 and has a 56 year length. Over the years I've seen many different illustrations of the K-Wave. The points of origin and lengths always change. The one constant is that we are just on the cusp of the decline and we are headed to an economic collapse that will be worse than the Great Depression. The people publishing this crap have been saying this for forty years! Do yourself a favor, research the K-wave illustrations over the years. The only people that have suffered an economic collapse because of the K-Wave are traders shorting the stock market. If you want to be a successful trader - stay way from the K-Wave!
Merry Christmas
Mark
DaddySawbucks
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@markrivest, One day it will come true, LOL Merry Xmas & HNY my friend!
The 'grand supercycle' produces a crushing bear market once in every human lifetime (86 year cycle). The bear market from 29 Oct 1929 to Aug 1932 lasted three years and wiped out 90% of market value.