Analysis on chart. Quarterly uptrend expired, the rgmov wave count suggests we are at the end of a corrective leg. The price chart suggests we are completing a terminal pattern with a diametric at the end of C.
According to Glenn Neely's wave count this is a B rally, so the next leg should be a very sharp C wave down! I'm placing a short based on the time at mode weekly signal, using the monthly chart's range expansion entry, which placed my stop slightly above the weekly downtrend mode.
The advance from the top has been incredibly violent and created a series of ripple effects throughout the global currency, metals and equity markets. The risk off rally in the Yen and this will be my vehicles of choice to surf the waves in this bear market.
Good luck if you take this trade!
Ivan.
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Can move SL to break even now. 1970.4
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Stop at BE might get taken out. Either let it hit it and reshort higher, or take the pain and leave the SL be and add to shorts higher.
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Break even stop on the short, ages ago. Posting updated chart this week.
Some time at mode and fibonacci targets. Time and price look optimal from a neowave perspective from what I can observe with my amateur eyes.
As for time at mode, in a day, if we close below the mode, trend will be down, and if we expand range down during NFP, it'll signal a downtrend aiming for the box #1 targets on chart. (1787-1780.6)
claydoctor
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Shorts got creamed today, you still a bear now? Or has this market turned back up trend?
IvanLabrie
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I'm happily holding and adding to shorts.
The logic of my analysis methodology points to a massive drop next, this is just sideways action, coiling...The calm before the storm.
claydoctor
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Hope you are right, because I added to my shorts also. Got me a little nervous though. Hold course.
IvanLabrie
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If we keep track of our emotions we can determine if it's a good idea to book profits, add, reduce exposure, etc.
Great lessons from George Soros, check out his book: "Alchemy of finance" (maybe you've already read it and I'm preaching to the choir here).
Personal reccomendation from Tim West, a really great read.
Additionally, check out this combo:
evanbright
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Thank you for your insights Ivan, this is very helpful:)