The slight new high in the TVC:SPX and OANDA:SPX500USD necessitates a slight recounting of the Elliot waves to account for the clear 5 wave drop from June 8th high to June 15th low while also accounting for the slight new high today.
Bottom line no matter how you slice and dice it the crash from Feb highs to March lows was a clearly impulsive 5 wave drop and no matter how you try to twist your eyes and slice and dice it the rally from the March lows can in no way be counted as impulsive nor force a 5-wave count into it.
Take away all counts and labels and indicators and look from a distance at the pure price bars since the March lows and it clearly has a corrective look to it especially as compared to what happened from the Feb highs to the March lows.
The B wave of this March lows has formed a "running flat" with the June 8th to the June 15th 5 wave drop having been the 5-wave c of this running flat B.
Since June 15th we have been in the final ending diagonal wave C of this B wave Bear Market Rally and with the slight overshoot today and rapid rejection in a convincing impulsive drop late today - meaning the Bear Market Rally - per this count - is over.
Wave C to March lows thus began today not on June 8th.
June 8th was indeed the end of the Bear Market rally in the Dow and the Russel 2000 and those indices have a slightly different wave count with wave 2 of C to March lows having ended today.
The few big cap tech names in the S&P have been distorting the S&P.
CBOE "Total Put-to-Call Ratio" made a lower low on June 8th as compared to the Feb highs which meant bullishness was even more extreme even though June 8th was a lower high than Feb.
And now with the slightly higher high today, the CBOE "Total Put-to-Call Ratio" didn't make it to a new lower low today even with the higher high which makes the rally today highly suspect and likely a top.
Take a look at the VIX today as S&P was making higher highs...the VIX kept rising which was a red flag that a violent reversal was coming as the rally since Friday has not been confirmed by the options market.
The VXN made a far more dramatic bearish divergence with the NASDAQ100 as the latter was making higher highs today the VXN blasted higher aggressively.
Even though the drop has been delayed in coming it seems to finally be at hand.
The bottom line: trend over next few weeks and maybe months will be to the downside.
To be bullish now and to position yourself bullishly by "buying dips" is playing with fire.
Proceed with caution.
Tomorrow earnings season begins in earnest.
Let's see if the VIX and VXN saw this coming and led their respective indices (S&P and Nasdaq).
Agree; IMO the rally topped on 13 July and retried on the 15th to a nominal intraday marginally higher price 3237, rejected; Bearishness on Thursday 16th likely to be followed with another last-ditch rally effort on Friday 17th IMO, typically the tops have three spikes before rollover.
antrap77
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Have been reading about Elliott wave analysis leading to major crash since April...these are the results: ATH
ProfitHarvest
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Let’s get this party started finally B).
Spawn777
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Agree and the fact that gold is at A near decade old inflection point...times could get interesting here
cyrusgr8
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@Spawn777, Yes I see Gold falling also. I agree we are at a key inflection point in Gold :)
Petrichor_
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@cyrusgr8, Great posts and analysis! Why do you see gold going down this time around? I was wondering if it was going to continue climbing the way it did in October 2008, when equities started their second leg down. Have you made any posts on gold?
cyrusgr8
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@Money2020_ET, I have not done analysis fully to my normal in-depth degree as I don't have a position on Gold. I do have PUT position on SPY which is why I am focusing on posting about the S&P believing I should only post on stuff I have my own money on the line or something is correlated to it that might shed light on the S&P. However cursory examination on Gold shows Elliot wave counts possibly showing Gold going down. If I was highly confident in that count I would have a short on Gold or long on Gold but I am not yet that confident in Elliot wave count which is why I have not posted it. Once I do I take a position and then I post it. In answer to your question though I would say the correlation of Gold to S&P is variable and changes. As the S&P dropped from Oct '07 to Mar '08 Gold rose in response to the crisis precipitated by Bear Stearns and Lehman collapses. However, as it became clear that that was not a short-term crisis but a full-blown recession and as the S&P continued dropping from March '08 to Oct '08 Gold dropped with it. It is tricky trading based on fundamentals. However, I would say Gold has risen with the beginning of this crisis but as data continues to come in that this is no 'V' shaped recovered but a deep recession ensuing (worse than '08) Gold could drop as it did back in '08. I will keep an eye on Gold and once more clarity arrives I will take a position and only then post about it. I don't think it is ethical to post on things one does not have his own money on the line. Just my own humble personal opinion :)
Spawn777
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@cyrusgr8, I’ve never been a fan of gold until recently. I see it as a very compelling buy right now, especially if we get a meaningful break above ath.