Elliot Wave Theory Analysis; SPY

2022年1月27日

Beginning in March 23, 2020, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) has seemingly followed a basic Elliot Wave Theory (EWT) trend.

Wave (1):03/23/20 to 08/31/20
Beginning around $219 and ending near $360, this wave is the apparent first in a new trend following the pandemic-related selloff.

Wave (2): 08/31/20 to 09/21/2020
A short but valid corrective wave, ending around $320.

Wave 3: 09/21/2020 to 08/30/2021
The longest and most powerful wave; building bullish sentiment throughout the wave.

Wave (4): 08/30/2021 to 10/04/2021
Another short but valid corrective wave, not exceeding a 38.2% retracement.

Wave (5): 10/04/2021 to 01/03/2022
The final wave of the EWT macro move was far shorter then wave 3 and was driven by a smaller group of traders.

Following the fifth wave appears to be a beginning of a correction movement against the macro-trend. If EWT plays out and holds valid, three corrective waves would be expected before the index returns to its macro-trend.

Would appreciate any feedback from anyone knowledgeable in EWT. Thanks.