SPY Daily On Balance Volume

2023年2月11日

Chart Setup
SPY Daily
OBV Timeframe 1Day

1. Since the Covid lows we see Price and OBV make higher highs and higher lows. The trendlines show that while price held strength, OBV began to taper, likely being an early sign for momentum reversal on a macro level. Also notable is while OBV peaked on Nov 21, 2021, Price continued to increase and make higher highs into early Jan 2022

2. Here we see both price and OBV move in tandem off of our ATH, showing momentum driving the price lower.

3. Price puts in a low around 410 and finds support in Late February. We see price put in a higher low (HL) mid march and OBV continues making lower lows, before recovering, indicating macro momentum may be downward

4. Price and OBV move to put in lower lows as confirmed short term momentum and pressure is downward

5. We see OBV consolidate while price bounces more aggressively giving us one of our bear market rallies

6. Price peaks and back to the continuing downside momentum, both price and OBV put in lower lows

7. SPY puts in its lows in mid Oct 2022 while OBV puts in another lower low about 2+ weeks later on the selloff from 390-370 that happened from Nov 1-Nov 3rd 2022.

8. Spy puts in higher lows and continues upward trend while OBV sets a lower low

9. Our current upward move supported by OBV on small time frames

OBV is, like all indicators, a tool to be used as part of a trading system and is not a crystal ball.

With that being said we are currently seeing the highest upward confluence between price and OBV in quite some time. I assume prior to CPI this week we won’t see a significantly high enough volume day to shift the trend we have for either price or OBV. On a macro level I think downward moves can still be aggressive, though I definitely do see potential for OBV to have bottomed in the near term.