Hello Traders! The FED's monetary policy is not convincing the markets, but Powell seems very determined to meet his inflation targets. In near term, market seems to want to counter this hawkish monetary policy, but that could change going forward. In short term, yields remain at high levels and I don't exclude that this rally could continue for the last bullish impulse with wave 5 formation. Does this bullish pattern meet economic fundamentals over the medium term? ...What is your opinion?
Tomorrow, the FOMC announcement will have a major impact on US Government Bonds, and it could take either direction, so being cautious could be a wise and correct choice.
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๐ Pattern still in play...
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๐ Trend is still bullish.
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๐ก Longer-dated U.S. Treasury yields slipped as investors digested recent comments from several Fed officials, including some comments that underpinned the view the U.S. central bank may be able to pause in its rate hike cycle.
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โ ....after 4 months, Target 1 hit:
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๐ด Fiscal concerns and worries over a prolonged period of elevated interest rates sent government bonds tumbling in the third quarter, and some investors believe more weakness is in store. U.S. government bond yields ended September with their biggest quarterly rises in a year, disappointing fund managers who were hoping for relief from the historic losses bonds suffered in 2022, when the U.S. Federal Reserve and other central banks raised interest rates to contain surging inflation. While bond yields โ which move inversely to prices โ appeared to be topping out earlier this year, renewed hawkishness from central banks has sent them soaring again in recent weeks. In the U.S., for example, benchmark 10-year Treasury yields are now hovering around 16-year highs at 4.57%, with some investors saying they could rise to 5% โ a level not seen since 2007. Treasuries are on track to post their third straight annual loss, an event without precedence in U.S. history, according to Bank of America Global Research. The jump in yields is hurting equities, which notched their first quarterly drop this year in the U.S. and Europe. With U.S. Treasury yields leading the rise, global currencies are reeling as the U.S. dollar rallies. Monetary policy expectations have been a key driver: the Fed last week surprised investors with their hawkish projections for rates, which show borrowing costs remaining around current levels throughout most of 2024. Investors have had to readjust swiftly, with traders now betting the Fedโs policy rate, currently at 5.25%-5.50%, will be down to 4.6% by the end of 2024, much higher than the 4.3% they foresaw at the end of August.
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๐ด The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note rose to 4.68% on Monday, rebounding from an 8bps fall on Friday, as traders continue to assess the monetary policy outlook and the conflict in the Middle East. Market participants will closely monitor comments from several Fed officials this week, including an appearance by Fed Chair Powell before the Economic Club of New York on Thursday, for further insights into the central bank's next steps. On Friday, Philadelphia Federal Reserve President Harker said he would favor holding interest rates at the current level. Last week, the FOMC minutes revealed that policymakers are inclined to keep interest rates elevated for an extended period, with the next moves being uncertain and contingent on economic data. Recent data also indicated that both consumer and producer inflation exceeded expectations in September, while the labor market remained tight.