I feel sorry for you and anyone that followed your short recommendation. Lack of understanding of Argentina can do this. Never bet against the USD specially with a 60% ot higher inflation rate and an election that just had it shooting to the stars.
franpasss
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Dat is not going to happen never in this life lol. I am from Argentina and it is known that at the end of the year the dollar will be arround of 50 pesos argentinos (if nothing strange happen, and if it happen de price will be more than 50)
PichiMoku
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@franpasss, Un gusto, pero tiene razón el flaco. Ya rompió la cuña alcista que llevaba. Si pierde el soporte de la EMA 200 se viene a pique. Además tiene terrible divergencia bajista hace meses, así que pienso que va a empezar a subir salado el peso argentino.
@dickgord, Mantengo mi análisis, lo de hoy es púramente político. Hay que leer bien "si pierde el soporte de la EMA 200", aún no lo perdió. Igualmente sigue dando divergencia bajista desde por lo menos el 2015. No digo que no pueda seguir subiendo, lo que digo es que está muy cerca de cambiar de tendencia.
dickgord
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@PichiMoku, Everything in Argentina is POLITICS. You should know being a very clear "Argento" speaker (BTW wonder why use it, it's a USA based forum with mostly English speakers... but I digress). In any case anybody is entitled to a conclusion.
My opinion is that your analysis is pretty much depending on a black swan event.... short of a miracle. I maintain my conclusion, based not on technicals but on simple experience with the country.... Some things don't ever happen here. A significant move down of the USD is one. Another is a permanent defeat of Peronism. I would use Elliott waves and technicals everywhere else. Not here. Too small a market, completely manipulated and always on the up move because of inflation.
JavierLobato
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The problem is that you only use technical analysis when analyzing a currency pair such as USDARS, which it's clearly not good enough to predict the movement when we everyone who lives in Argentina knows how are the ARS backed up here. We have no reserves, in deep recession, and we have a very quite big short term debt upcoming. If you think that USDARS is going down you probably don't live in Argentina.
PichiMoku
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@JavierLobato, I learn that for money you can´t use only technical analysis! Miley tiene la posta ,se va al carajo el dolar en Argentina.