The start of a long-term bear?

wsbzaの投稿

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equality between wave (Y) and (W)

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possible short-term structure

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break below 65.21 would send another invitation to bears

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the decline after flat was in three waves, so the flat could be a wave W instead

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I came up with a different count

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I am shifting my previous preferred count to alternative structure

purple count is my preferred structure

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Since the short-term pattern looks corrective, the July high of $75.25 could be broken again

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and of course, the bearish count may still work, but whether there is any trading opportunity or not, could be a different story
another push above 71.36 would suggest the triangle case mentioned above
any close below 64.4 could lead to further bearish potential (the potential that $75.25 is a larger degree top)

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possible bigger picture

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almost there?

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wave {A} done?

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short-term bullish count

wave {iii} has already surpassed the 1.618 extension (at 50.99)

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the 1.618 extension should be at $51.80

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short-term bullish count in blue, alter count in grey

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if wave {v} has ended at $54.3, we should expect a three wave correction which could drag price back to the end of wave {iv} ( note the pink {a}-{b}-{c} could also be just the wave {a} or {w} at the same degree);
if wave {iv} is still unfolding ( e.g. triangle (a)-(b)-(c)-(d)-(e)), another modest push above $54.3 is possible although I think it's very less likely to happen.

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short-term count

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complex wave 2?

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the alternative count

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running triangle for wave (B)?

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a flat for wave (B)?

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wave (C) is likely underway
alternatively another zigzag decline to complete wave E of (B)

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the alternative triangle probably will not happen, here is my short-term guessing so far

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min target could be at 58.61 where wave (C) = 0.618 wave (A), ideal target is still around $63

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possible short-term count

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flat for wave 2?

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break above wave 1 high of 57.86 could indicate wave 3 of (C) is underway

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Wave (C) could be an ending diagonal

However, we could still assume (C) is an impulse wave rather than diagonal and count the short-term structure as below

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Any close below the red wave 1 high at 57.85 would increase the odd for ending diagonal scenario, although you could still argue this is a 1-2-{i}-{ii} bullish structure

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divergence between RSI & Price

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triangle wave 4 ?

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or flat wave 4 followed by wave 5, wave 5 should be shorter than wave 3

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wave 5 is less likely to move beyond $64.12 ( where wave 5 = wave 3)

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almost there?

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An impulsive fall below wave {iv} low at $61.8 would suggest wave {v} of (C) is in place.
Alternatively, any push above $64.06 would argue wave (C) has more bullish potential.

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if price move above $64.06, I would consider label red wave 3 as {i} of 3 of (C).

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There are number of different ways to count the bullish structure

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short-term count

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The decline was sharp, but it has not made any significant change to the overall structure yet.

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We simply need to see sharp reverse (within the lower time frame) to the upside to keep wave 4 scenario alive.
If price only produce bearish sideways( or any other corrective patterns), then we could refer to the above count and sell after the breakout.