Another bloody August for USOIL?

2017年7月23日

Let's see whether we can catch a significant bottom in USOIL price for 3rd August in a row :)

I am looking for decline through the next 5-7 weeks due to the following brutal rejection at Weekly Pivot R1, which is also Daily EMA100.



Note RSI - although the new high of 47.71 is slightly above previous major high 47.29 on Jul 4, downtrending RSI makes me think buyers are walking away.



Target 1: 42.55
This is the area of current Monthly Pivot S1, and closely correlates to last "minor lows" June 2017, December 2016, Sep 2016

Target 2: 39.78
This is the area of current Monthly Pivot S2, and closely correlates to last two "major lows" on August 2016 and August 2015

Both areas are possible reversal zones, though S2 looks more likely at this time.

Watching out for:
- OPEC/Russia murmurings during last week of July (I don't believe any further cuts will be announced).
- Further big declines in USD
- Collapse of Venezuela and more Mad Max stories :)https://www.google.ca/search?q=mad%2Bmax%2Bvenezuela

2017年7月27日

ノート

For me it is almost time for 'the big short'.

The timing for posting this last week was a bit poor, because we did have big declines in USD, and we did have more more murmurs of production cuts through the news. That however, does not make me change my plan (which is mostly based on technicals)

I've also heard some other traders' ideas and seen their infographics regarding supply levels finally dropping for the first time in 5 years - which perks my ears a bit, as the reality of demand finally outpacing the global storage/supply glut and overproduction is possibly drawing to a slow end.

.. back to technicals though:

We can see that daily RSI is topping out, and I am waiting for daily MACD to make a cross to signal the top of this recent wave up, and hopefully show us another lower low.

Screenshot to follow

2017年7月27日

ノート

2017年8月10日

ノート

The daily candle has not closed so I am jumping the gun a bit. Regardless, after a week of coiling and waiting, here we are at SHORT signal. TPs will of course be adjusted as the candles unfold .. but this still remains the plan!