Gold's Final Push or Reversal? Key Levels for a Major Drop!
アップデート済
What to Expect Next Week
Gold is nearing the completion of Wave 5, with rejection likely between 2,680.70–2,695.32.
A reversal is expected post-Wave 5, targeting correction zones near 2,608.99 and below.
How to Trade:
For Short Traders:
Wait for rejection near 2,695.32, and short with confidence if bearish signals align.
For Long Traders:
Look for entries at support zones 2,608.99–2,567.63, expecting a bounce back toward 2,680.70.
Risk Management:
Keep stops tight above invalidation points (2,735.88 for shorts; 2,547.39 for longs).
Adjust position size for the volatility expected near resistance zones.
1. Market Context and Structure
Phase and Current Movement:
Wyckoff Schematic in Play:
Gold is currently in Phase D of a Wyckoff accumulation schematic, approaching a potential climax and markdown after completing a diagonal Wave 5.
Market has made significant progress from Spring/Support Test (SC & LPS) to the resistance zone, where distribution may occur.
Wave Analysis and Key Structures:
Wave 5 (Diagonal):
Targets for Wave 5 Completion:
2,693.33: Divergence zone on Wave 5.
2,695.32: Key diagonal extension target for Wave 5.
Post-Wave 5 completion, the market appears primed for a corrective structure (Wave A) to fill liquidity gaps below.
2. Expected Price Movement
Scenario 1: Completion of Wave 5 and Reversal
Key Rejection Zone:
Expect price to peak between 2,680.70 and 2,695.32, with possible wicks above for a liquidity grab.
A bearish reversal is likely as Gold completes the UTAD (Upthrust After Distribution).
Downside Targets After Wave 5 Completion:
First target: 2,608.99 (0.5 retracement of the recent leg).
Second target: 2,597.92 (0.618 retracement).
Stretch target: 2,567.63 (0.786 retracement and alignment with previous accumulation range).
Scenario 2: Invalid Breakout Above 2,695.32
If Gold sustains a breakout above 2,695.32, invalidation occurs at 2,735.88 (Shallow 4 resistance).
Extended rally targets:
2,749.43: Possible trap zone.
2,782.74: High invalidation for bearish structure.
3. Key Price Levels to Monitor
Resistance Zones (Sell Side):
2,680.70: Divergence zone in Wave 5.
2,695.32: Final diagonal Wave 5 target; high rejection probability.
2,735.88: Upper invalidation and extended target if bullish momentum sustains.
Support Zones (Buy Side):
2,608.99: 50% retracement; initial correction target.
2,597.92: 61.8% retracement; likely to induce a bounce.
2,567.63: Key support and 78.6% retracement.
Gold is nearing the completion of Wave 5, with rejection likely between 2,680.70–2,695.32.
A reversal is expected post-Wave 5, targeting correction zones near 2,608.99 and below.
How to Trade:
For Short Traders:
Wait for rejection near 2,695.32, and short with confidence if bearish signals align.
For Long Traders:
Look for entries at support zones 2,608.99–2,567.63, expecting a bounce back toward 2,680.70.
Risk Management:
Keep stops tight above invalidation points (2,735.88 for shorts; 2,547.39 for longs).
Adjust position size for the volatility expected near resistance zones.
1. Market Context and Structure
Phase and Current Movement:
Wyckoff Schematic in Play:
Gold is currently in Phase D of a Wyckoff accumulation schematic, approaching a potential climax and markdown after completing a diagonal Wave 5.
Market has made significant progress from Spring/Support Test (SC & LPS) to the resistance zone, where distribution may occur.
Wave Analysis and Key Structures:
Wave 5 (Diagonal):
Targets for Wave 5 Completion:
2,693.33: Divergence zone on Wave 5.
2,695.32: Key diagonal extension target for Wave 5.
Post-Wave 5 completion, the market appears primed for a corrective structure (Wave A) to fill liquidity gaps below.
2. Expected Price Movement
Scenario 1: Completion of Wave 5 and Reversal
Key Rejection Zone:
Expect price to peak between 2,680.70 and 2,695.32, with possible wicks above for a liquidity grab.
A bearish reversal is likely as Gold completes the UTAD (Upthrust After Distribution).
Downside Targets After Wave 5 Completion:
First target: 2,608.99 (0.5 retracement of the recent leg).
Second target: 2,597.92 (0.618 retracement).
Stretch target: 2,567.63 (0.786 retracement and alignment with previous accumulation range).
Scenario 2: Invalid Breakout Above 2,695.32
If Gold sustains a breakout above 2,695.32, invalidation occurs at 2,735.88 (Shallow 4 resistance).
Extended rally targets:
2,749.43: Possible trap zone.
2,782.74: High invalidation for bearish structure.
3. Key Price Levels to Monitor
Resistance Zones (Sell Side):
2,680.70: Divergence zone in Wave 5.
2,695.32: Final diagonal Wave 5 target; high rejection probability.
2,735.88: Upper invalidation and extended target if bullish momentum sustains.
Support Zones (Buy Side):
2,608.99: 50% retracement; initial correction target.
2,597.92: 61.8% retracement; likely to induce a bounce.
2,567.63: Key support and 78.6% retracement.
トレード稼働中
Gold is testing 2,695. Watch for reversal signals!トレード終了: 利益確定目標に到達
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ノート
What’s your plan if the 2,567 support gets tested—buy or short further?ノート
Fridays often bring unusual price action, likely due to weekly closes and lower liquidity. It might be a good day to focus on low-risk trades, consider closing positions, or simply wait for the next week's open to act with more clarity.ノート
wノート
ノート
The price shows an extended Wave 5 rally, indicating the final move of a larger bullish trend before a potential correction.
A divergence in Wave 5 is highlighted, suggesting weakening bullish momentum and possible reversal soon.
ノート
CHoCH (Change of Character) at internal levels signals a potential shift in short-term trends.
Breaker Block at $2,624.30 is noted as a significant support/resistance level, likely to attract orders upon retest.
Weak Wave A and potential corrective structure (ABC) marked at the top of the rally.
ノート
Price may return to fill the gap (Markdown phase) below Wave 5, targeting breaker and Fibonacci zones.
Inducement areas suggest traps for late buyers, aiming to liquidate these positions on the pullback.
ノート
Scenarios for the Next Moves:
Scenario A: Completion of Wave A, followed by a shallow Wave B bounce, then Wave C to deeper support.
Scenario B: A sharper correction cutting through breaker block and retesting the 61.8% or 78.6% Fibonacci levels.
Long-Term Context:
If the price respects lower support lines and resumes an uptrend, the breakout of $2,711.91 could target new highs.
Failure to hold above key supports like $2,574.19 might indicate the broader bearish trend continuation.
ノート
🚨 Monday Trading Plan Update: "Patience is Key" 🚨
📅 Objective: Gain clarity by observing Monday's price action and the daily close.
🌟 Plan Breakdown
🛑 Sit-Out Mode (Main Strategy)
Mondays often bring choppy, unclear moves. By waiting for the daily close, we can spot:
Where key levels are forming.
How price reacts to these levels.
When to position for high-probability setups.
🎯 Scalp Option (For the Brave)
If you must trade, stick to small, low-risk scalps. Use high-confluence setups and tight risk management.
🔍 Why This Approach?
💡 "Not trading is also trading."
Avoid unnecessary losses from impatience.
Prepare for higher-quality setups later in the week.
Start the week with a clear and disciplined mindset.
📊 What to Observe Today:
Key levels and reactions.
Sentiment from market participants.
Volatility and range for the week.
💎 Key Takeaway
"Trading is a marathon, not a sprint." Starting your week with patience helps you trade smarter and align with your strategy.
Let's stay sharp, observe the market, and prepare for the opportunities ahead. 💪
ノート
If you could master one trading skill this year, what would it be?ノート
How do you stay focused and motivated during periods of drawdown?ノート
📊 End of Day Thoughts
Today’s market showed a lot of indecision, with price consolidating around key levels. For me, it was a reminder that waiting for clarity is just as important as taking trades. Tomorrow, I’ll be watchingfor potential setups
ノート
ノート
GB - CBI Distributive Trades (NOV)
Outcome: Bearish for GBP.
Rationale: The drop to -6 (below zero) indicates declining retail sales expectations.
Best Crossover: GBP/USD, EUR/GBP – Watch for GBP weakness.
US - Case-Shiller Home Price Index (SEP)
Outcome: Neutral.
Rationale: Slight variations in MoM (-0.3%) and YoY (5.2%) are unlikely to significantly impact USD.
Best Crossover: Neutral observation for real estate-related assets.
US - CB Consumer Confidence (NOV)
Outcome: Bearish for USD.
Rationale: A drop (108.7 vs. 112) suggests waning consumer optimism.
Best Crossover: USD/CAD, XAU/USD – Potential dollar weakness and gold rally.
US - New Home Sales (OCT)
Outcome: Neutral to bullish for USD.
Rationale: A positive revision (4.1% MoM) could support economic sentiment.
Best Crossover: USD/JPY.
US - FOMC Minutes
Outcome: Volatile; depends on tone.
Rationale: Hawkish tone supports USD; dovish tone weakens it.
Best Crossover: USD/JPY, XAU/USD.
ノート
ノート
What value do you see in joining a trading community that provides personalized mentorship?ノート
AU - Monthly CPI Indicator (OCT)
Outcome: Bearish for AUD.
Rationale: A drop to 2.1% YoY inflation signals reduced price pressures.
Best Crossover: AUD/USD, AUD/JPY – Look for AUD weakness.
US - Core PCE Price Index (OCT)
Outcome: Neutral for USD.
Rationale: Consensus alignment (0.3%) keeps inflation expectations steady.
Best Crossover: Neutral impact.
US - Durable Goods Orders (OCT)
Outcome: Mixed for USD.
Rationale: Ex-transportation data (0.5% → 0.6%) bullish, but headline number (-0.7%) bearish.
Best Crossover: USD/JPY – Watch for volatility.
US - GDP Growth Rate 2nd Est (Q3)
Outcome: Bullish for USD.
Rationale: 3% growth outpaces previous expectations, supporting economic strength.
Best Crossover: USD/CAD, EUR/USD – Dollar strength likely.
US - Personal Spending (OCT)
Outcome: Bullish for USD.
Rationale: Increased spending (0.5%) reflects consumer confidence.
Best Crossover: USD/CHF, XAU/USD.
US - Goods Trade Balance (OCT)
Outcome: Bearish for USD.
Rationale: A widening deficit (-108.23B vs. -99.9B) pressures the dollar.
Best Crossover: EUR/USD, USD/JPY.
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