Gold took a big hit today. I just want to wait for the daily close before updating on the daily chart. I didn't like how we broke out of the flag last week. It was not the typical breakout when price is running higher 20$ the next day. It was just a weak breakout: a back test of the flag, a few more hours of a range and we needed to wait for a bounce until Friday... It's starting to look like a H&S pattern on the hourly chart. The left shoulder is the back test of the flag and the next few hours of range. Last Friday's bounce was the Head of the pattern. Today's drop set the neckline at 1291 and most probably we will have the right shoulder in the next hours.
As I'm writing this we are bouncing from the neckline . It's really hard to predict how the pattern will be printed exactly. We might test back the trendline at 1302. We might print the right shoulder at 1298. Or just a sideways move before the pattern breaks down. Tomorrow will tell.
Today we just turned down from the 200 MA of the 4hrs chart. Price was not able to test back the false swing level at 1,313.75$. Price is in the oversold territory we need to work that down before breaking down the neckline.
NEW LONG ENTRY at 1295$. HAve some dry powder if we test back the trendline. STOP: above today's high at 1307$
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Typo: *** NEW SHORT ENTRY at 1295$.
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We sliced through the 1285 level. Next resistance is :1279,39 And after that I see only 1260,7$.
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Moving the stop to break even. (1295$)
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First level achieved: 1279,xx.
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Empty space until after 1260.
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Below the 10 EMA it's a downtrend.
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Heikin Ashi candlestick chart is showing a red candle again for today:
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Yesterday's bounce was just a powerful back test of the trendline on the hourly chart. Though the trendline is broken we are still in the downtrend. I think 1260 will be tested this week.
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Let's make that 1260!
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I'm going to take profit on the short position at the stop run below 1260,5$. That is the point where a lot of bulls will stop out. I will be buying their gold contracts.
@AhmedKhattab, we have a daily swing on day 6 and a follow through. Be very careful. This easilycan drop to 1200 in the following weeks.
AhmedKhattab
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@chartwatchers, Thanks Arpi
You are right, and my analysis is wrong
popshvt
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1278 seems a good place to short
popshvt
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Trump ruined bears party, if trump step down we can short gold safer
peterwb
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possibly not going to get 1260 or 1250 ?? FOMC starting tomorrow and Trump to announce new Fed Chairman nominee on Thursday.
usef
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2 scenarios
1- we were having deep correction like always and start the bull to new highs 1250 is the key level
2- if we break 1250 it we will continue the fourth leg of triangle until 1180
still holding my long position stop loss 1248
and selling SP500 2,560
popshvt
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i think gold is faking, see eurusd, it doesn't have any pullback