Bitcoin / US Dollar Perpetual Inverse Swap ContractBitMEX
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What a boring 48hours! 1. Falling Wedge -. (+ve) Breakout 2. Descending Triangle -> (-ve) Breakout
Doesn't matter in what direction it breaks out from these patterns, in the end, everything points 2900. It will happen. The question is when. I've never seen any commodity reverse it's direction in the middle of nowhere. Where BTC is atm, it's the middle of nowhere. Broke 3500 support. Has to test the next support. These are basic fundamentals of Trading. If a resistance is broken, the price seeks next resistance. It might not get to the exact resistance but it'll try to get there. Wick close to it or something. We haven't seen that move yet. Which is why I believe sooner or later, we'll get to 2900. I see no reason why BTC will call this home and move back up. After dumping $100 just now, we are sitting at the bottom of the descending triangle. Low liquidity weekend is here. The volume is any way dying. I just can't see it going up anymore.
How am I trading this? Got into a SHORT earlier today at 3400. Closed it at 3360. I thought this side movement will continue for another 24 hours. Now, I'm looking for a decent LONG term SHORT entry. 3340-3400 would be a good entry. 3400-3500 is better and anything higher is frigging awesome for a SHORT entry.
What are my indicators saying? FOMO 1hr -> Red since 3460 FOMO 2hr -> Red since 3420 FOMO 4hr -> Red since 3400 HTL -> Turned Red around 3370 FOMO Momentum -> Showing extremely low buy momentum which is dying slowly.
When will I LONG? When I see a reason to. :)
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Right after I published this. Broke the descending triangle.
Good as always my friend. I opened a short off the 4 hr chart at 3450 based on validated h&S pattern. Has a target of $2889
vjsharma89
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@jolllysworld,
Thanks mate.
You got a bit lucky there with HnS coz HnS that is being passed around is not a valid HnS.
HnS is only relevant if it occurs after a substantial increase in price (Uptrend).
Inverse HnS on the other hand is reversal pattern for downtrend (indicating price could go up as trend might reverse).
vjsharma89
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And run away from people who are passing it off. haha
p2hku
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@vjsharma89, First of all, excellent TA sir. I used to think HnS has to be in the end of an uptrend to be considered valid but there's a guy called forflies who is a trader I respect a lot and he also showed that specific HnS. He said a HnS can also be a continuation pattern. And I thought - yeah, why not? It's just a lower high followed by a higher high followed by a lower high. It forms when there is an ABC correction of the impulse wave. A confirmation of the pattern happens at the same time as a breakdown of a bear flag.
vjsharma89
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@p2hku, Thanks for your comment.
Well, it's just co-incidence that it looked like HnS. As you said, there were other factors in play. Could be ABC correction, could be a symmetrical triangle or a part of a bigger picture like a bear flag or a bear pennant.
The first HnS looks like HnS but technically it's not. The volume kept dying throughout it as you can see on your chart. HnS usually have highest volume around the top of head and both shoulders. That is not the case here. Second thing is that the price broke down simply coz the uptrend support line broke.
Second HnS is the same. Volume speaks for itself. Not a Valid HnS. Price broke down as the volume kept decreasing and finally it broke the support as there was no buy support anymore.
But then it worked both of those times coz what you had for neckline was an actual support, the downtrend momentum is massive and volume keeps dying every passing day.
jolllysworld
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@vjsharma89, ahhhhh, forgot about the volume mate, Well glad it worked out ha ha. short from 3450 and holding for 2975 area
vjsharma89
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@p2hku, See this.
This occured on smaller timeframe. 1hr
At the end of an uptrend.
Volume spikes at both shoulders and heads
p2hku
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@vjsharma89, Thanks for your thorough explanation. Your example is truly a HnS. Even though my examples are not HnS patterns in their truest sense, they are similar in their nature, showing that bulls are unable to make new highs. In your example the volume spikes in the left shoulder and the head, but is lower in the right shoulder, just like it should be, indicating the lack of buying interest. The volume spikes again when there's a clean break of the neckline.
vjsharma89
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@p2hku, Yes!
I just stated the technicality. We might come across a lot of lower highs that might make the whole thing look like HnS.
We can call it HnS. Nobody can stop us from doing that. haha
But if we go with trading rules, it won't be a HnS.
Anyway
I hope you are in a SHORT right now?
It's going to be a crazy ride to 3k.
:D
p2hku
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@vjsharma89, I'm short from 3543 on finex. Initial target was 3112 for a safe high probability trade. We'll see if it's worth moving lower, I want to see the panic mode hit first. By the way, I just joined your group yesterday, I'm Kristostomus. You guys are amazing!