You probably wish you held onto that BTC long position after you sold it for a few position points? Or wish you went long in the first place? Why? Because you were waiting for a pullback... But we never got it.
The question is... WHEN IN THE HELL DO WE GET IT?
So check this out. In my big analysis, we all know that our main target is 11k or higher, we're looking at a failure and a possible retrace to 3k. That's just the bias. BUT, we aren't going to automatically ASSUME that. Because anything can happen. But why does that information matter? Because typically in healthy impulse waves, we get larger retraces on subwaves, and we move up a little less parabolically. Parabolic increases call for parabolic decreases. It's just not healthy.
And this run is NOT healthy either. We are extremely overbought, but it's not stopping BTC from tearing the walls apart. I will update with an analysis on indicators, and minuette wave count. BUT, what I can infer is that this is not the last run for BTC. And We would start looking for the end of this run to be between $10-10.1k. Yeah? Crazy right... As soon as you think you have the wave count down, and everything is simple with the bearish divergences, the indicators reset and we go for another $300 tear. I would expect that again here, because we actually just got a bullish divergence on the 3 hour. Indicating that after we correct from this $9750-$9800 range, we'll get another leg up. The lower timeframe indicators are what keeps driving the DAILY indicators to continue to move higher.
Like on my last post, I stated that we never quite retested the 55 Daily EMA yet, and we are in the same position as the previous crazy drop from 11.7k to 6.4k. I do NOT believe we drop back down to 6.4k just yet. I think 11k is still a suitable target before anything like that happens.
Trading Advice: Trade with the trend, and try to stay as neutral as possible. Opposing trend trades should be on short-time frames. Consider alternate paths and don't force your trades. Patience is key, and keep the emotions in check. Losing money is okay. Stick to stop losses. A RR above 2.0 and a high probability trade will make you profitable OVER TIME.
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Literally, this one sign of bullish divergence on the 3 hour RSI means that after this correction, we are likely to make another run for higher highs.
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Possible truncated 5th here.
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alternate count. The original is already invalidated.
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A wave is complete here is a long positions play. Targeting the 55 EMA and the .5 fib retrace.
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Bearish And Bullish Counts. Based on the Daily histogram, I would actually think the bearish would be just as, if not more likely than the bull count. But we should stay as neutral as possible.
トレード稼働中
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I don't usually activate trades, but I will with this one since its a bit more risky. Stop loss at $8756. Targeting $9250.
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Looking good.
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If you're swing trading BTC, Here is an outlook. We obviously bearish right now, and I expect this trend to continue to the low 8k region.
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This is the 12 hour chart. ^
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So with BTC here, there are 2 things to consider. And both of them deal with the top resistance line. The dotted white line is a resistance that has not yet been established, but it would be a channel resistance. If we fail to break that channel resistance, then we would classify this as a bear flag, and I would enter another short.
If we break the dotted line, then we would continue to the target of $9250. BUT, we would not assume a fall to the lower levels after that. We would have to wait on a confirmation of a break below the previous A wave. Even though the original analysis is bearish, I'm trying to stay as neutral as possible because this market is PSYCHO!
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I have taken profit already. Not likely to go higher than previous high.
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Beautiful isn't it? Bearish 3 line strike with immediate rejection at the 55 EMA. Setting our NEXT target to at least $8200
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bullish divergnces. BTC is likely to break up!
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Two bearish formations, but bullish divergences on the 1 hour. Higher time frames are oversold on stoch, but the 1 hour may show another small drop. I'm not seeing a high RR setup here. So just being a little cautious here and waiting to see what happens.
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Here is a bullish count.
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bearish count.
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Buy order @ $8960. Target Swing High @ $9175 Short order @ $8750. Target .786 extension @ $8450-$8500
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Seeing bearish signals on the 1 hour chart. I'm not very inclined to go long here and have removed the buy order. I may be looking into a short here.
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Here are the bearish signals. But I still am NOT in a position, I want to see more rejection.
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I took a chance here and shorted at $8905. The risk to reward was just way to high for me to pass up. BUT it is a very risky trade because the resistance has not be officially confirmed in rejection. It is worth the risk in terms of signals from indicators, however. We'll see how it goes.
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I've already taken profit on the trade a while back for just a little scalp. I didn't feel like sitting around all day for a sideways market when I can just hop back in later after confirmation. Anyways, this reminds me of an accumulation period where people are cycling out short and long orders. I would NOT be surprised if we start our next bull run from here. So here is another alternate count. If we dont break that bottom support line then we might as well go up!
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Anddd 30 seconds later we break up hahaha... wth
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I just want you all to know that that break out IS a buy signal! First target is just the swing high of $9150. THEN we analyze from there and see where we go.
Thank you. Please remind us to "like" your wonderful work as I forget it sometimes. You are very much appreciated!!!
Elijah_Trading
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@lvuman, Thank you! But it is okay! I am not worried about the likes :)
davidvillarreal.sa
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That last one looks like a bear pennant and it also have hidden bear div on the 30M
davidvillarreal.sa
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@DavidVillarreal.sa, And just now it broke upwards hahaha my bad, just trying to recognize patterns
Elijah_Trading
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@DavidVillarreal.sa, no it definitely did look like a bear pennant! But applying flags to wave count is where it gets tricky. That's why I was so indifferent. It could have broken either way!
davidvillarreal.sa
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@Eball8, In this cases there's nothing better than buying at a breakout