Took profit on XRPUSD , looking for retrace

2017年10月9日

Took profit at .2750. I would expect a retrace soon based on bear divergence noted in this 60 minute chart and divergence of TK lines. For the intermediate term I am still long XRPUSD, though will look for re-entry with a smaller position at or slightly below the kijun using these doubled crypto settings (20/60/120/30). Still a very bullish picture on the 4H chart: T>K, price above an uptrending kumo, and Chikou span above price. Very recently had bullish T-K cross on the 1D chart, but kumo on that time scale is flat.

Upcoming Swell conference and its surrounding buzz probably fueling the price and volume action. I would have close stops on any long position still open after the conference is complete (runs Oct 16-18). If the news is more hype than substance, price could decrease quickly. Upcoming BTCGold and 2x fork bitcoin uncertainty also cloud the picture for XRP, though it obviously has done well compared to the vast majority of altcoins over the past week.

Point of interest: I saw a bear div on the 4H chart as well, but it was more subtle - it displays better on the 60M chart.

Disclaimer: I do own some Ripple; it comprises <5% of my crypto holdings.

Good luck.

2017年10月11日

ノート

Re-entered the trade on retrace on 10/9. Retrace was actually a little more than I expected. In retrospect my stop was set pretty close, and the trade stopped out while I was afk doing non-crypto work. I should have given the trade a little more room to breathe. Currently I'm set to re-enter the trade at .0245 (just above the 4H kijun). Adjusted stop for my comfort level is at .022 (the top of the kumo). Still bullish 4H plot. Still only weakly bullish 1D plot. Interested to see what happens to price during Swell.