Adaptive SuperTrend AI - Regime-Tuned [Dots3Red]

📈 ADAPTIVE SUPERTREND AI — REGIME-TUNED [Dots3Red]
Classic SuperTrend uses one fixed ATR multiplier forever. That single number is a compromise: tight enough to track trends closely, it whipsaws during ranges; wide enough to survive ranges, it lags badly once a real trend starts. This script replaces the fixed multiplier with one that changes based on what kind of market is actually happening, using the same regime-detection engine shared across the Dots3Red catalog.


🧠 THE REGIME ENGINE
Every bar is classified into one of four states using ADX and the Choppiness Index together:

• 📈 TRENDING — ADX confirms directional strength and Choppiness confirms low chop
• 🔁 RANGING — the opposite: weak directional strength, high chop
• ⚡ VOLATILE — current ATR has expanded well beyond its baseline, regardless of direction or chop
• ❔ UNCERTAIN — none of the above conditions are clearly met

The raw regime reading is smoothed by taking the most frequent classification over a short lookback window, so a single noisy bar can't flip the regime label back and forth.


🤔 WHY RANGING GETS THE WIDEST BAND, NOT TRENDING
This is the part that looks backwards at first glance, so it's worth explaining directly. A ranging market chops back and forth around a mean — if the band were narrow here, ordinary noise would cross it constantly, causing false flips. So RANGING gets the widest multiplier (default 3.5×), letting normal chop stay inside the band. A TRENDING market is moving with genuine conviction, so a moderate multiplier (default 2.5×) tracks the move closely without giving back excessive profit before flipping on an actual reversal. VOLATILE conditions get the widest multiplier of all (default 4.5×) as a purely defensive setting, since sudden expansion is unpredictable by nature.

When the regime changes, the active multiplier doesn't jump to its new value instantly — it glides toward it over a configurable number of bars. This prevents the band from visibly teleporting on a regime transition, which would otherwise look jarring and could itself trigger a false flip right at the transition point.

The underlying band mechanics — the ratcheting upper/lower band logic, and a flip only when price closes beyond the active band — are the same as classic SuperTrend. Only the multiplier driving the band width is dynamic.


✅ THE CONFIDENCE LAYER
A SuperTrend flip is a single binary event: price crossed the band, direction changed. This script adds a secondary read on how convincing that flip actually is, using 8 independent checks against the new direction:

1. Close vs. a trend moving average
2. MACD histogram sign
3. Recent higher-high / lower-low structure
4. Close vs. the SuperTrend's own midline (hl2)
5. RSI side of 50
6. +DI vs. -DI dominance
7. Volume above its moving average on a trend-direction bar
8. Whether the regime is currently TRENDING

Every confirmed flip shows this count directly on its label — "▲ 6/8" means 6 of the 8 checks currently agree with the new uptrend. A flip with 7/8 agreement and one with 3/8 are treated identically by the raw band mechanics, but this layer gives a way to distinguish a well-supported flip from a marginal one at a glance.


🎯 FLIP WIN-RATE TRACKING
Each flip is graded once the following flip occurs: did price actually finish above the flip price (for an up-flip) or below it (for a down-flip) by the time direction changed again? This produces a running win rate — for example "58% (n=34)" — shown in the dashboard. It is a simple, honest measure of how the flips on this specific chart have actually played out, not a backtest or a promise about future flips.


🔒 NON-REPAINTING
Flips, confidence readings, and labels are all evaluated only on confirmed (closed) bars. A flip that appears on the chart will not later disappear or move to a different bar as new price data arrives.


🎨 VISUALS AND CUSTOMIZATION
The SuperTrend line and gradient fill are colored by current direction. Flip labels appear directly on confirmed flip bars with their confidence count. An optional background tint can shade the chart by current regime. All four core colors (bullish, bearish, volatile/warning, and uncertain/neutral) are fully customizable in settings, independent of the script's default palette.

The dashboard (position configurable) shows: current direction, current regime, the active ATR multiplier, the confidence count with a progress bar, the running flip win rate, and the raw ADX, Choppiness, and ATR ratio readings behind the regime classification.


🧭 HOW TO USE
👀 Reading the line and fill — the colored line and gradient fill show current direction at a glance. This is the same information classic SuperTrend gives you; the difference here is in how the band width behind that line was chosen.

🧠 Check the regime before trusting the band width — the dashboard's Regime row tells you why the band is currently as wide (or narrow) as it is. A band that looks unusually wide isn't a bug — it likely means the engine has classified the market as RANGING or VOLATILE and widened defensively. Knowing the current regime helps set expectations for how the band will behave if conditions stay the same.

✅ Use the confidence count to gauge flip quality, not to filter flips — every flip is real and non-repainting regardless of its confidence count. The count is a lens for judging how broadly supported a given flip is, not a gate that decides whether one occurs. A "▲ 7/8" flip and a "▲ 3/8" flip both mean the band was crossed; the number tells you how much independent agreement existed at that moment, which is useful context when deciding how much weight to put on that particular signal versus your own analysis.

🎯 Watch the flip win rate as a running self-check on this chart — because it only starts once flips have accumulated and been graded, treat an early or low-sample win rate as inconclusive rather than a verdict. It becomes more informative the longer the script runs on a given symbol and timeframe.

🔔 Regime changes are themselves informative — the alert for a regime change fires independently of any flip. A shift from RANGING to TRENDING, for example, can be useful context on its own, since it signals the band is about to glide toward a different multiplier even before any flip occurs.

🚫 This script describes band behavior, not entries or exits — it does not tell you when to open or close a position. Use it as one input alongside price action, structure, and whatever other analysis you already rely on.


⚙️ SETTINGS
📈 SuperTrend Core
• ATR Length
• Factor — Trending / Ranging / Volatile / Uncertain — the four regime-driven multipliers
• Factor Transition (bars) — how gradually the multiplier glides between regimes

🧠 Regime Engine
• ADX Length, Choppiness Length, ATR Baseline Period
• Trending / Ranging Thresholds — where the combined ADX+Choppiness score is classified
• Volatile ATR Multiple — how far above baseline ATR counts as volatility expansion
• Regime Smoothing — lookback window for the majority-vote smoothing

✅ Confidence Layer
• Trend MA Length, RSI Length, Structure Lookback — parameters for the 8 confidence checks

🎨 Visualization
• Gradient Fill, Flip Labels, Regime Background Tint — each toggleable independently
• Full color customization for all four regime/direction colors

🖥️ Dashboard
• Show/hide, position


📝 NOTES
The regime engine needs a short warm-up period before its smoothing window is fully populated; early bars on a fresh chart may show less stable regime labels than bars further along. The flip win rate starts empty and only becomes meaningful after several flips have occurred and been graded.


⚠️ DISCLAIMER
This is an analytical and visualization tool. It does not generate trade signals and does not constitute financial advice. Historical flip win rate does not guarantee future performance.