NZDUSD: TOO LATE TO LONG/BUY AND TOO RISKY TO SHORT/SELL
アップデート済
THE ASSESSED AND MEASURED CURRENT MEDIUM TERM TARGET ZONE AT WHICH LEVEL THE MEDIUM TERM PRICE STABILITY TO BE MANAGED BY THE FED AND RBNZ AT THE LEVEL OF 0.6850-0.7950 FOR 1100 PIPS WIDTH OF MEDIUM TERM TARGET ZONE. THE MEDIUM TERM DIRECTIONAL MOVEMENT OF THE MEDIUM TERM PRICE STABILITY IS TO UPWARD DIRECTION (UPWARD TRENDING OF MEDIUM TERM). THE PAIR IS FLOATING AT NEAR THE CENTRAL BAND/CENTRAL PARITY 0.7320 AND CURRENT RATE 0.7250.
LONG ON THE CURRENT MEDIUM TERM TARGET ZONE OBLIGATES THE MANAGEMENT OF THE STOP LOSS BELOW 0.6850 AND TOO WIDER TO HOLD TO TARGET THE 0.7950 RESULT TOO SMALL REWARD TO RISK RATIO EXPECTATION. SHORT ON THE CURRENT MEDIUM TERM TARGET ZONE OF UPWARD TRENDING IS PROHIBITED.
HIGH FREQUENCY TRADE FOR DAILY LOW/HIGH, WEEKLY LOW/HIGH, MONTHLY LOW/HIGH AND QUARTERLY LOW/HIGH TOO LATE TO INITIATE WITH THE OBLIGATION FOR MANAGING THE STOP LOSS CONSISTENTLY BELOW 0.6850. LONG/BUY FROM THE CENTRAL BAND/CENTRAL PARITY 0.7320 AFTER STABILIZED FOR +/- 2.25 % NOT PERMITTED AS THE PAIR IS BEING MOVING FROM THE LOWER TO THE UPPER BANDS OF THE MEDIUM TERM (NOT UNDER STERILIZATION).
THE CURRENT OPTION AVAILABLE IS TO TRADE THE NZD'S DERIVATIVES WITH OTHER MAJOR PAIRS BY MEASURING THEIR "TARGET ZONE DIFFERENTIALS AND PERFORMANCE".
UNLESS THE RISK CAN NOT BE ANTICIPATED AND MITIGATED, LESS LIKELY THE TRADE COULD BE PROFITABLE.
LONG ON THE CURRENT MEDIUM TERM TARGET ZONE OBLIGATES THE MANAGEMENT OF THE STOP LOSS BELOW 0.6850 AND TOO WIDER TO HOLD TO TARGET THE 0.7950 RESULT TOO SMALL REWARD TO RISK RATIO EXPECTATION. SHORT ON THE CURRENT MEDIUM TERM TARGET ZONE OF UPWARD TRENDING IS PROHIBITED.
HIGH FREQUENCY TRADE FOR DAILY LOW/HIGH, WEEKLY LOW/HIGH, MONTHLY LOW/HIGH AND QUARTERLY LOW/HIGH TOO LATE TO INITIATE WITH THE OBLIGATION FOR MANAGING THE STOP LOSS CONSISTENTLY BELOW 0.6850. LONG/BUY FROM THE CENTRAL BAND/CENTRAL PARITY 0.7320 AFTER STABILIZED FOR +/- 2.25 % NOT PERMITTED AS THE PAIR IS BEING MOVING FROM THE LOWER TO THE UPPER BANDS OF THE MEDIUM TERM (NOT UNDER STERILIZATION).
THE CURRENT OPTION AVAILABLE IS TO TRADE THE NZD'S DERIVATIVES WITH OTHER MAJOR PAIRS BY MEASURING THEIR "TARGET ZONE DIFFERENTIALS AND PERFORMANCE".
UNLESS THE RISK CAN NOT BE ANTICIPATED AND MITIGATED, LESS LIKELY THE TRADE COULD BE PROFITABLE.
コメント
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NEW ZEALAND ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL STABILITY BAND OUTLOOKTHE LONG TERM GDP BAND IS TO UPSIDE RISK DESPITE THE MEDIUM TERM TO DOWNSIDE RISK BUT LIKELY TEMPORARY OF CURRENT GDP 2.5 % (YOY). THE LONG TERM INFLATION BAND ALSO TO UPSIDE RISK AS WELL AS THE MEDIUM TERM BAND AT CURRENT RATE 1.7 % (YOY). THE CURRENT ECONOMIC ACTIVITY MANAGED BY THE RBNZ AT 1.75 % INTEREST RATE. THE CURRENT ECONOMIC STABILITY PREVENT THE RBNZ TO PROLONG MONETARY EASING AND TURN INTO MONETARY HIKING POLICY. AT CURRENT 1.75 % RBNZ INTEREST RATE THE 10Y GOV. BOND YIELD AT 2.84 %. THE LONG TERM 10Y GOV. BOND YIELD BAND TO UPSIDE RISK AFTER STRONGLY DEFENDED AT THE LEVEL OF 2.00 % AS WELL AS THE MEDIUM TERM TO UPSIDE RISK. THE CONSOLIDATED ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL STABILITY CONFIRMS THE UPSIDE RISKS OF BOTH LONG AND MEDIUM TERMS. AT SUCH, GLOBAL INVESTORS WILL CONTINUE TO INVEST INTO THE NZD AND NZD-DENOMINATED DEBT SECURITIES TO STRENGTHEN THE NZD IN THE MARKET. AT THE SAME TIME, THE RBNZ WILL BE OBLIGATED FOR UNDERTAKING MARKET STERILIZATION TO SLOWER THE STRENGTHENING OF NZD IN THE MARKET TO MATCH THE ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL STABILITY.
コメント
NZDUSD STABILIZED AT CENTRAL PARITY 0.7320 FOR +/- 2.25 % (0.7160-0.7480) AS PERMITTED BY INTER-CENTRAL BANKS COMMUNICATION POLICY AND SHOULD THE STABILIZATION IS STRONG AND 0.7160 IS STRONGLY DEFENDED BY THE STABILIZATION THAN LONG ON NZDUSD AT 0.7160/0.7250 COULD BE PLACED TO TARGET THE UPPER MEDIUM TERM BAND 0.7950.
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