AUDNZD: The pair must trade this week. RBA in the focus.

2016年5月1日

This week, market pays all attention on Aussie and RBA with many risk event and data must watch.

AUDNZD definitely will suffers a strong sell-off in this week because the divergence bwt RBA and RBNZ.

We knew that RBNZ last week left the rate "on-hold" , and Australia CPI missed the forecast, dropped to 1.7% for RBA trimmed mean CPI (YoY). AUDNZD fell about 400 pips from 1.1250 to 1.0885

This week, RBA Meeting and Australia Budget Release, NZ employment report are key data and events we must watch to trade AUDNZD.

Many economists and commercial banks bet on rate cut for RBA Meeting.

I think I should follow this forecast, a 25bp rate cut will trigger a big move for Aussie.

NZ employment report likely is positive for Kiwi.

We will see the divergence bwt Kiwi and Aussie is more clearer in this week.

If we check Technical Analysis, we see AUDNZD also broke two meaningful supports:

- Kumo cloud
- SMA200

I think those are strong signals which would weight on Aussie and send AUDNZD to next support. I think likely 1.0750

I recommend to sell AUDNZD to 1.0750.

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