Bitcoin's Stability Should End Soon

2015年4月2日

As you can see, for the first time in almost a year a Triangle Target did not materialize. The intention was to go big time short at the 200 day SMA ( ~$330) but the news of the Evolution Hack definitely turned momentum a few weeks earlier than expected. Yes, i lost a decent amount cause that was as sure of a trade as i had this year. Obviously the risk management was decent so we live to trade another day.

Now on to the current environment:

We have stability that is similar to the last two weeks of February but at that time, we were coming off 2 significant breakouts and on the verger of breaking past a 50-day SMA that was leveling off from a long decline. This time the situation is different since we are stabilizing after what i would call 1.5 breakdowns and the likelihood of another one is definitely more than 50/50. The 50-day SMA is not in our favor either as we have recently fell below it, and tested it as resistance wen it started to turn down last week.

Also take a look at the momentum indicators (yes i know the chart is in log scale on the price and the indicators have standard parameters). a month ago they were all trending UP with room to spare and now 2 out of 3 are trending down and the 3rd is just flat at the bottom and is hence meaningless.

There is a little room on the upside before resistance kicks in at the $255 level and the 50-day SMA, but the price action is definitely leaning to the down side. When, how far and how fast, no one knows. My best guess is we hit $200 by end of month.

Good luck Traders. Latest blog post on price still relevant, will do another one soon or start posting at BraveNewCoin where i'm now Head of Research.

libertylifetrail.com/2015/03/22/bitcoin-price-analysis-week-of-mar-22/
bravenewcoin.com/

PS: Near term Public Appearances
4/3 - Guest on the Freedom's Phoenix Radio Show
4/27 - Speaker at Inside Bitcoins NYC
5/14 - Speaker at Inside Bitcoins HK