Short term parabolic growth

2018年2月17日

It's unsustainable. You know what's going to happen.

2018年2月18日

ノート

So BTC broke the parabola earlier than predicted. Down it goes.

2018年2月18日

注文をキャンセル

The parabola I drew yesterday was broken earlier than expected and thus invalidated. I think it will take a few extra days for BTC to hit the heavy resistance zone around 12k (signaled by the blue line). As it approaches that zone we may see an increase in selling activity, which can cause a 15-25% price drop. But that's about it. Many traders here have been betting on a drop to 6k or even 4k, but I think that scenario is unlikely unless we see some seriously bad news coming out. The market has been in a 'buy and hodl' mood since the downtrend was reversed on Feb 5th.

2018年2月23日

ノート

In retrospect I should have predicted it to hit ~9300 on Feb 23 since that's when the CME futures contract will expire.

2018年2月24日

ノート

So if this fails to bounce back at ~900 (+- 300) then we're looking at a potential double bottom at 6k. The orderbook on GDAX looks pretty dense between 9000-9300, so I think there's a good chance this is the bottom. But who knows? It seems most of the dump is happening on Bitfinex, and the orderbook there doesn't seem very encouraging.

2018年2月26日

トレード終了: 利益確定目標に到達

It's close enough to the target, I think.